Euro / Australian Dollar at 200 Average-Focus Still Higher

Australian dollar setups have played out and moves are expected to extend. 

Euro / Australian Dollar

DailyBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURAUD has traded in a 1400 pip range since January with the latest advance (from the July low) and decline (from the August high) stopping just short of the respective range extremes. This slight tightening of the range hints that a triangle may be underway. If so, then price will work higher over the next few weeks in order to complete wave E of the triangle before reversing lower. As such, I am bullish against 12987. While there may some resistance at 13645, a sharper advance upwards of 13872 is favored.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Friday that “the pattern is now quite clear with the current rally composing wave iv of an impulse from the September high. Strength could extend into channel resistance near 8000 early next week but I expect weakness in a 5th wave towards 7750.” Price has plummeted and is nearing the August low of 7652. A break there could be the beginning of a move to the March low near 7400. There will be rallies along the way and beware of interventions and/or rumors of interventions. Short term resistance is 7715/45.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURGBP plummeted into trendline support on last week before reversing sharply. Price has since consolidated and the next leg higher maybe underway. Near term focus is on the resistance line that extends off of the July and August highs. A break above there would shift focus to the 8/31 high of 8884.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

WeeklyBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Near term, a EURCAD drop below 13406 may actually complete a 3 wave correction from the June high (flat). Bolstering a bullish setup is the outside week this week (and perhaps a bullish engulfing pattern – must wait till Friday though). Focus now shifts higher towards 13879.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I’m zooming out a bit to show the break of the 2010 low. In fact, the EURJPY is at its lowest price since June 2001. I wrote last week that “recent strength stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 11192. More importantly, this is the same level that produced the January and March lows. As such, there is a bearish opportunity against 10700.” Bear’s focus is now on the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2010 lows near parity (100).

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Weekly Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The GBPJPY has dropped below the 2009 low of 11880 and additional downside could test the former resistance line (throughout 2009 and 2010) near 11000 at the end of this month! Those playing the breakout should keep risk to 11984. Short term resistance comes in at 11900.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

WeeklyBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I wrote Friday that “as is the case with ‘risk trends’ in general, there is no compelling evidence to suggest that this is the bottom so favor the downside against the September 1 high of 7911. Measured objectives are 7345 and 7169.” Continue to look lower but also focus on the sharp downward sloping trendline (that extends off of the June and August lows). Also worth mentioning is the objective from extending the width of recent consolidation from the break. This method yields a 7450 objective.