Monday, March 30, 2009

17 Factor....guide u

Forex Guide - 17 Key Factors
1. Establish Stop Loss : Before making any forex trade what soever, decide before how much you're willing to lose and you just follow that amount. Set a stop loss level before entering a trade and place it as soon as possible. Never alter your stop loss if your position is losing.


2. Let your profits Run : Never let your emotions govern a trade. Keep in mind why you are entering the market and of course you follow these reasons. You'll be less emotional, you will be better. Do not turn your trading plan, move your stop loss as the market moves in your favor and let your profits run.

3. Do not influence them : You must have your own forex trading strategy and you will comply. If you are influenced by others, you change your mind so incessant, learn to ignore the outside once you have made your choice. You will always find someone who can give you a logical explanation to take a position opposed to yours.

4. Keep sizes and positions within acceptable limits : Forex Traders have a real success when they know that trading is a game of probabilities, and in long term if you stick to your strategies and you implement healthy strategies that you follow, it is likely that you will succeed. To be a successful trader, you will never take a position that could jeopardize substantial capital. In fact, you will find only very rarely win trader risk that more than 10% of its capital in a trade, and 10% is already extremely high. For example, if you deposit 25, 000 USD from your trading account, your maximum loss should be USD 2, 500, representing a maximum loss of 250 pips for a standard lot of 100,000 units (on a trade EUR / USD for example) . Generally, try to put more than 2 to 5% of your available capital.

5. Know your risk ratio Vs your earnings ratio : The ratio of benefit / minimum risk you should use is 2:1. For example, if you are trading long GBP / USD and you want to gain 50 pips, you should not risk more than 25 pips. Another example, you should never risk 40 pips to gain 15. If you do, you lose trades will ruin your chances of profits. The analysis of risk Vs profits is an extremely important for any forex trader.

6. Have a suitable capital :
Always make sure you have enough credit, for example you can ask the following question: "If I lose 50% of my starting capital in a period of 6 months, can I still enable as a trader? . Only if the answer is yes you can start trading. One of the keys to success is independence of mind in the trading, which means your trading freedom must not be influenced by your fear "crippling" to lose.

7. In Trend or Neutral : Learn how to analyze the forex market, is this a trend or rather neutral? In a market trend, follow the trend, in a neutral market, buy low and sell high, since you are using stop loss, and you control your risk.

8. Do not fight against the trend : Do not try to sell high in a bull market or to buy low in a bear market. Follow the good old adage "the trend is your friend!

9. Average : One of the most common mistakes made by traders is the continuous addition of positions on a losing position. I have personally never seen a trader profits on the long term by using such techniques. For short-term trades, preserving capital is the most important, involve too much capital will undermine your success. Trading in the short term, if your strategy is good, the market will evolve in the desired direction in a relatively short time, however if the market gives you wrong, the short-term traders will have to accept that they trade so incorrectly, gets cash losses and seek a new trading idea. Do not leave room for pride in your trading.

10.The idea of yesterday is no longer necessarily valid today:
Regularly we may detect a potential trade and decide to wait until the following day to see if he is confirmed. When you see that everything went exactly as you thought, remember that it may already be too late. Back over your reasoning for this trade, make sure your original reasons are still valid, if not forget this trade. There will always be opportunities for trades, be patient and attack.

11. Understand how the market thinks : Everbody should accept that any information (except for newly published information that the market adjusts immediately) is already included in the price of a currency pair. You must know the indicators to come (especially the most important), and you need to know what is already anticipated by the market. The vast majority of the publications of the market is already anticipated and prices by the market.

12. Trading - a game of probabilities : Nobody can get 100% results in forex trading, you must accept it. Trading is a game of numbers, you win sometimes and lose other times, the idea is simply to win more than you lose. Trading is a game of probability and if you act properly in the long term, you will come out winner. Learn from your mistakes, when you begin, you're more likely to lose in the beginning, look what you've done wrong, try not to get into the emotions, if you meet your strategy and learn from your mistakes, you should see your profits exceed your losses.


13. Know why you are in a trade : Keep a journal of your trades and record exactly why you went into each trade. Do not be impulsive, follow your strategy, that way you will learn what strategies work for you long term and which do not work.


14. If the logic disappears, exit : If you think you are on a low and that it breaks down, exit the trade, and then reassess the situation to make a new decision.


15. Establish a follow up : If you chain 3 or 4 losing trades, take a break! It is obvious something is not working, leave, go drink a coffee,Do not be afraid to take a break.

16. Study : Learn new ideas, keep up to date, and do not trade on the ideas of others, you should always know why you are in a trade.


17. Fun : Enjoy what you do, have fun! However, keep calm, stay as uneffected and never give up - you'll have more success.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Update Gj preview 23 - 27/03/09



Salam...sekadar pandangan ringkas tuk gj mggu depan...pada pandangan sy...pergerakan market gj bias terhadap... bear candle this week.. price di jangka akan berlegar sekitar 139.xx-128.xx sekira nya berjaya break triangle...berhati2...sekiranya price berjaya melepasi 140.xx totaly bias tidak lagi valid..apa2 pun 135.70 menjadi confirmation..trend bertukar...good luck

Monday, March 16, 2009

update 17/03/09


just pandangan untuk geppy hari ini...price close still above weekly pivot...trend maseh nampak bullish...di jangka gj akan mencuba 140.50...jika gj tidak break 137.30 hari ini...

Friday, March 13, 2009

Money Management....

Don't Lose Your Shirt

Here is a little illustration that will show you the difference between risking a small percentage of your capital compared to risking a higher percentage.

Money Management

You can see that there is a big difference between risking 2% of your account compared to risking 10% of your account on a single trade. If you happened to go through a losing streak and lost only 19 trades in a row, you would’ve went from starting with $20,000 to having only $3,002 left if you risked 10% on each trade. You would’ve lost over 85% of your account! If you risked only 2% you would’ve still had $13,903 which is only a 30% loss of your total account.

Of course, the last thing we want to do is lose 19 trades in a row, but even if you only lost 5 trades in a row, look at the difference between risking 2% and 10%. If you risked 2% you would still have $18,447. If you risked 10% you would only have $13,122. That’s less than what you would’ve had even if you lost all 19 trades and risked only 2% of your account!

The point of this illustration is that you want to setup your money management rules so that when you do have a drawdown period (losing streak) you will still have enough capital to stay in the game. Can you imagine if you lost 85% of your account? You would have to make 566% on what you are left with in order to get back to break even. Trust me, you do NOT want to be in that position. In fact, here is a chart that will illustrate what percentage you would have to make to breakeven if you were to lose a certain percentage of your account.

Loss of Capital

You can see that the more you lose, the harder it is to make it back to your original account size. This is all the more reason that you should do everything you can to protect your account.

So by now, I hope you have gotten it drilled in your head that you should only risk a small percentage of your account in each trade so that you can survive your losing streaks and also to avoid a large drawdown in your account. Remember, you want to be the casino…NOT the gambler!

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Weekly Preview 9 - 13 /09 ..




Pandangan market minggu ini maseh lagi ke arah mood correction...di mana market bergerak pada (135.xx-144.xx) kedudukan correction yg besar utk percubaan ke Fibo 23.6% (144.59).Walau bagaimana pun pergerakan ini akan terbatas sekira nya price breakout diagonal support... 135.13 trend correction tidak valid lagi..Good Luck

Thursday, March 5, 2009

FINANCIAL CRISIS AND BAILOUTS

1. I was in England recently and the newspapers were full of dismal reports on bank and business failures, the closure of well-known businesses like Woolworths and Baratt, the increases of unemployment rate with some 700,000 professionals among the 2 million laid off or unable to get jobs. And there were lots more bad news.

2. The British Government is busy bailing out banks and companies with hundreds of billions of pounds but the economy seemed to have gone into recession despite all these efforts. There is no sign that the crisis is on the mend.

3. Malaysia can feel vindicated because all the things we did in the 1997 - 98, crisis, which were condemned by the economists of Europe and America, are now being done by them blatantly and on a massive scale. They talk about trillions of dollars and hundreds of billions of pounds in bailouts. Where the money is coming from is not revealed. Have they been keeping these huge sums for such an emergency?

4. I am not a financier or even an economist. But somehow I think the bailouts are not going to work although they worked in our case.

5. This is because the banks and businesses we bailed out did not get into trouble because they abused the systems or indulged in fraud. They were forced into that situation because the currency was devalued by currency traders and they found themselves unable to meet their commitments. Once they gained access to funds through bailouts they were able to do business again and to repay the money they had received.

6. They were able to do this because, although Malaysia was in recession, the rest of the world was not. There was much less constraint in doing business.

7. The situation today is very different.

8. The collapse of the economies of the rich countries is due to extensive abuses of the financial and monetary systems so much so that the systems broke down completely. I doubt (not being an expert I can only doubt) that the trillions of dollars to bail out the failed banks and financial institutions will enable them or their economies to recover.

9. This is because their huge losses were due to fraud and they cannot recover the billions they had lost through ordinary business, i.e. through the financing of the production of goods and services. Only through doing the same things that had brought them down, i.e. through sub-prime loans, through investments in derivatives and hedge funds, through massive loans to currency traders etc. can they make the billions to return the money they had received through bailouts. Obviously they cannot be allowed to indulge in their old abuses. Through ordinary business it would take years and years to recover the money they had lost. In the meantime all these banks, financial institutions and businesses will belong to the bailor, the Government, i.e. they have effectively been nationalised. And that will spell the end of capitalism and the free market.

10. It should be noted that the East Asian countries have not yet recovered from the 1997 - 98 crisis. Their currencies have not regained their strength to the pre-crisis levels. They have all become poorer, or at least not as rich as they could be had there been no financial crisis.

11. It will be the same with the rich countries. Their GDP and per capita pre-crisis will not be restored despite the trillions they are spending on their bailouts. They are poorer now and will remain relatively poor even after they have put their houses in order.

12. I may be wrong of course. Maybe by more trillions of dollars of bailouts the rich would achieve recovery. But I have my doubts.

13. Unfortunately the poor countries will also become poorer.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

This week Preview...


Just my personal preview ...for this week...i'm looking geppy play in range area 135-144...price close above Pivot point...see this week...price wanna strong to pull back again....beware...at 133 range area zone...wish me luck again....