Trading Psychology: Three Losses in a Row

3 losses in a row are tough. That’s about the most consecutive losses that novice traders are psychologically prepared to accept before they feel compelled to take action and ‘correct’ the situation.

If you’re anything but a total newbie, I’m sure you’ll recognize the symptoms:
Frustration – Why me? I’ve worked so hard. Everyone else in the forum appears to be getting good results with this strategy? Nothing ever works out for me.

Anger - That strategy developer is a liar and a crook. My broker is running my stops. Someone should be held accountable for this.
Doubt – What if the strategy doesn’t work? What if I can’t trade? How am I going to support my family?
Fear– I can’t lose more money, what will everyone say about me when they know I’m a loser? How can I tell my wife/husband that I’ve lost again?
And if that’s not enough, the novice trader will likely be afflicted with the crippling inability to pull the trigger on the next trade, in fear of hitting a fourth loss in a row.

Usually, there is one of two responses:
1) The strategy is tweaked to ensure that the modified version would not have triggered these losing trades, through:
a) Swapping one indicator for another,
b) Optimising indicator parameters, or
c) Adding an additional filter.
2) Totally abandoning the strategy, usually followed by returning to their favourite forum to find the next Holy Grail strategy that is designed to make their dreams come true.

Is this the right response though?
Typically, trading decisions which are influenced by emotions rarely result in the right action.

So, what should be done?
First, before we continue, you need to confirm that you do have a valid, proven trading strategy. Have you conducted appropriate testing to satisfy yourself that it provides a positive expectancy? If not, stop trading it right now and return to testing. I don’t care what reason you had for jumping straight into a live trading environment, but the fact is that it’s difficult to psychologically trade a strategy in a consistent and disciplined manner when you don’t have complete confidence in its rules. You need to conduct thorough testing.

But assuming you have a strategy that has proven itself through positive results either in a testing or live tradingenvironment, simply refer to your testing results or pasttrading history, and you’ll confirm that three losses in a row is a quite normal occurrence. In fact, it’s quite normal to have a lot more than three in a row. And it does not mean that your strategy is flawed.
Let’s look at this from a purely statistical perspective.

The table above shows that given a trading strategy with a 50% win/loss ratio, the probability that you’ll get a string of three losses in a row somewhere within your next 50 trades is 99.8%.

Even if you’re achieving a win/loss ratio of 70%, you’ve still got a 73.1% chance of having a string of three losses somewhere within your next 50 trades.

It’s going to happen. It’s a normal occurrence. Accept it.
So, based on this, what’s a reasonable response from a trader following three losses in a row?

The first thing is to confirm all three trades were entered and managed in accordance with your plan. You should be doing this for every trade anyway, but if you’re a very short term trader then perhaps you don’t get an opportunity till after the session is over. If that’s the case, and you’ve get three consecutive losses which appear to be worrying you, pause to review them now. If they’re not valid trades, find out why you entered them, refocus on your plan and your goals and then continue trading. However, if they’re valid trades, you might want to consider the following action:

1) If you’re a mechanical trader, keep trading.
2) If you’re a discretionary trader, check to see if each entry is actually at the same setup area. If so, you’re possibly just not reading the market right at the moment. Consider halting your trading until the market action has changed and a new setup has developed.
3) If you still find yourself experiencing difficulty in pulling the trigger, get away from the markets for a while.
a) It’s time to take a break – relax, refresh and recharge yourself.
b) Review your trading plan and your historical results (either live or testing).
c) Carry out some visualisation and affirmation sessions, to prepare yourself for pulling that trigger once your break is over.
d) Return to the markets with the goal of correct application of your plan – don’t focus on the dollars won or lost, instead focus on the process of trading.
4) And if on returning you still find problems, well you’ve got some more serious issues that need to be worked through. I don’t mean that in a bad way, but you need to take a longer break to seriously review both your trading plan and yourself:
a) Are you taking too much risk per position? Reducing your position size can often make an incredible difference in your ability to trade in a relaxed and confident manner.
b) Do you really understand and accept the probabilistic nature of the markets? I’d suspect not. Read “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas for a brilliant insight into these issues.
c) Are you consumed by fear of loss whenever it comes time to enter a trade? What is it you fear exactly? Maybe it’s time to delve into the world of trading psychology. “The Psychology of Trading” and “Enhancing Trader Performance” by Dr Brett Steenbarger would be my recommended starting point.

One final thing! If three losses in a row does not necessarily equate to a flawed strategy, then at what point should you stop trading and review your plan? Well, I don’t base this on a particular number of losses in a row, but rather on a level of drawdown. Only you can determine what should be considered a normal level of drawdown, based on your historical performance. But certainly, if you equal the historical maximum drawdown for your strategy (if not sooner) then you should be reviewing your strategy to confirm it’s based on sound fundamental principles that still apply to the current market environment. And at some stage of drawdown beyond this point, you need to have clearly defined STOP criteria. Don’t bleed your account to death. Stop, take a break if necessary, reassess the situation, conduct further testing and return stronger than ever before.

Steps to Controlling Emotions and Gaining Trading Discipline

1. Know what you are going to do before you do it.

A Master Chess Player is at least 6 moves ahead of his opponent at every step in the game of Chess. A Master Trader identifies themarket participants in that stock at that moment, determines when the next level of market participants will buy, decides a specific price for entry, and has one or more exit strategies planned for that stock trade before he ever places an order. In other words: he knows what he is going to do before he initiates the trade and has all of his various strategies worked out for all the different scenarios that can happen to that trade. He is prepared for all situations and ready to trade.

2. Develop your own unique Trading Style.

Too often traders simply follow the crowd. Instead you should develop your own unique trading style. A trading style is not a strategy. It is a set of parameters or rules that you adhere to strictly, ignoring rare anomalies that occur in your trading from time to time that go against your rules. Your trading style should also ignore gimmicks, fads, and ‘hot new strategies’ that are constantly being promoted to crowd traders. If you establish a set of parameters for your trading, write those rules down, and follow them while ignoring the crowd mentality of most small retail traders, you will begin to establish strong emotional control in your trading decisions. The trick is writing the parameters down and then sticking to those rules. Emotions want traders to ignore rules.

3. Ignore the Money.

Don’t trade for the money. Trade because you can’t imagine doing anything else. Trade because it is the most enjoyable and rewarding profession you can do. You can have a passion for studying charts without letting passion rule your decisions. Highly successful people, in any career, do not do their job because of the money, they do it because they love what they are doing and can’t imagine doing anything else. The money is secondary to doing the job that gives them purpose and self-esteem. Money is not the ultimate motivator, purpose and self-esteem are.

4. Don’t count your profits before the trade is completed.

Most traders worry about their profits and check them every day. They get elated when a stock they are holding moves up a few points and get frantic when a stock they are in moves down. They constantly check their held positions and calculate their gains or losses during the trading day. This is one of the biggest mistakes traders make and it creates an emotional state of mind that lacks control. Checking your profits or losses constantly is obsessive, gambling mode trading. And it is not based on facts.

Most traders assume that if they are in profit in a held stock they have made that money. Conversely, if they are losing money, then they take the stance that this is just a momentary loss and not a real loss. This is how most traders think, but it is the opposite of what they should be thinking.

To gain control over emotions and to gain discipline in your trading you must view your stocks this way: When a stock moves against you, you immediately have a loss, even before you are taken out of that stock. If the stock moves a few points in your favor then you have the potential for profits. But until you exit that stock you do not haveprofits. Only when you sell that stock do you actually have profits. A loss is immediate, even before you sell. Approaching your held stocks in this manner is critical to maintaining the proper viewpoint when holding stocks.

If you view every stock this way, your emotional control is geared for correct responses and decisions for the condition of your trade. If you say to yourself that a losing trade is going to turn around, you immediately increase your emotional level so that instead of thinking logically, you are hoping and praying for a miracle that the stock will turn around. This will cause you to miss subtle chart patterns that are telling you to dump the stock and move on.

If you are in a profitable trade and you say to yourself “look at all the money I’ve made!” you are in an emotional euphoric state of mind. Euphoria makes traders feel invincible, and you will ignore weakening patterns. The result of this euphoric state of mind is that you will either hold a stock too long, or you will take greater risks in your next few trades that will result in losses due to poor analysis dominated by emotions and a false sense of invincibility.

Solution to euphoria: First recognize it. Traders are never brilliant. It is only an ideal trade during great market conditions for that trade. To quell the euphoria, do not trade after you have made a huge profit. Take a few days to settle down. This is not gambling where you can say to yourself “I’m on a roll!” You are most definitely NOT on a roll. Trading takes logical analysis, not super-heated emotions of feeling brilliant. If you stop trading and let your emotions calm down, you will see huge improvements in your consistency of profitability. This is the reality of trading the stock market.

5. Know your risk tolerance.

Two chronic complaints from traders is that Market Makers are ‘out to get them’ and that stop losses don’t work. Both are fallacies steeped in conditions that create deep emotional trading patterns. First let’s get rid of ‘The Market Makers are out to get the little guys Syndrome’. The truth is the Market Makers primary role is to keep the markets orderly by buying or selling their own inventory of stock IF there are no buyers or sellers for an order. That is something that occurs only in large lot activity or illiquid stocks.

If you are trading under 5000 (five thousand) share lots, then you are trading what is considered a small lot in today’s market where billions of shares trade hands each day. The reality is that small orders under 10,000 share lots are routed to computer processing systems. These computer programs fill small lot orders automatically when received from the brokerage houses. Market Makers never see these small orders.NASDAQ has its SuperMontage automated order processing system andNYSE has Archipelago. The Market Makers don’t even know you exist. If your stop loss gets taken out and then the stock moves up (or down) this is not because a Market Maker saw your stop loss and decided to take you out of your tiny share lot trade, it occurred because too many small traders all used the same percentage stop loss and thereby accidentally created an imbalance of order flow that triggered a series of automatic selling that caused you to be taken out.

The second myth: Stop losses don’t work.

The problem is that you are trading way beyond your risk tolerance. Risk tolerance is different for each trader. Most traders don’t even know what their risk tolerance is nor do they consider this when entering a trade.

The common scenario:

A trader places a stop loss that is obviously too tight for the stock’s normal price action patterns because he is afraid to lose money. He thinks that if he keeps a very tight stop, then he is only risking a small amount of money. Often these stop losses are based on a specificdollar amount that has nothing to do the with the chart price action.

The trade is too high risk for his risk tolerance but instead of discarding the trade in search of a trade within his risk tolerance, he trades emotionally by convincing himself the trade will make him a lot of money and that if he just keeps a tighter stop then it is okay. The reality is that by keeping a tighter stop than the stock price action patternindicates is correct, he is actually increasing his risk for that trade as the normal price action will wipe out that stop loss quickly. And that trader’s normal emotional response is that stop losses don’t work.

Rule for stop losses: Do not use common and popular percentage stop losses. Use proper stop losses based on solid support levels for that stock.

Properly placed stop losses do work. They protect you from the occasional trade that goes against you. And they tell you if the risk of the trade is too high–a common condition of an overextended stockripe for profit taking by large lot traders. Improperly placed stop losses increase your risk and are an indication that you are trading outside of your risk tolerance. You are therefore trading emotionally.

How to control emotions:

Determine your risk tolerance and only trade stocks that are within that range. Usually the lower your capital base the lower your risk tolerance will be. As your capital increases, your risk tolerance should also increase as well. Never trade beyond your risk tolerance because you will trade with a heightened state of emotion and your decisions will be based upon greed or fear rather than logic.

6. Know your Financial Self-Worth.

Financial Self-Worth is probably the least known and least understood aspect of trading emotionally. Most traders don’t even realize or accept how much it impacts their trading. The most common symptom of this problem is the trader who suddenly makes some good trades and profits and is feeling great about his trading but the next few trades are disasters that leave him feeling bewildered and frustrated. If this has happened to you on more than one occasion, one of the reasons may be due to the influence of your financial self-worth.

Your financial self-worth is a culmination of many years of your professional adult work experience, your childhood experiences, your general feelings about money, and your educational experiences which create your perception of your worth to the society you live in.

These perceptions are a major emotional constraint in your trading. It is not created by your trading, but has been with you for many years prior to even thinking about becoming a trader. It influences your life far more than you probably realize. It can keep you from earning more money. And it can thwart and hinder your trading profitability. It keeps you from making a higher income and it sabotages your trading whenever you exceed your financial self-worth. It is the primary reason some traders make a lot of money while others have mediocre results.

Fortunately, financial self-worth is easy to determine and easy to adjust upward.

Taking the Financial Self-Worth Test will give you a basis that tells you critical information about yourself. Once you have assessed this aspect of your trading, it will lower emotions and give you more control. You can increase your financial self-worth and in doing so will increase your profitability, while eliminating that seesaw effect of gains followed by losses. You will have the tools to stop sabotaging your own trading profits.

7. Treat it like a Business.

If you want to make trading a full time career, you must treat it as any professional would in any career. View trading as a businessrather than just a hobby and your entire emotional level will change. Set up an office that is quiet, well organized, and far away from distractions. Keeping your trading computer in the family room is just asking for poor trading results. Maintain accurate records of every transaction you make. Document all of your trading efforts in a Trading Journal. All professionals keep journals or logs to track their performance over time. All serious traders should also have journals or logs that detail what they have done. That way you can easily go back and study what happened before and compare to current patterns.

Professionals never stop learning. They know that being a professional requires constant training and education to continue to hone skills and expertise and to keep up with the ever changing world we live in. Nothing is stagnant, life is constantly changing and so is the stock market.

Be a Specialist. The highest paid and most successful professionals in any field are Specialists. For example, doctors who specialize make far more money than a general practitioner. Traders who specialize also make far greater returns than those who dabble and experiment with every new gimmick and strategy. Choose an area of stock trading and become exceptional in that area.

8. Paper Trade on an ongoing basis.

Test Theories before implementing them. Too often traders learn a new strategy or think of a new theory about trading and then rush in to the market without testing that theory or strategy. The end result is loss, often huge losses. A doctor wouldn’t test a theory on a live patient. Theories are tested in the lab for many years before they are used successfully on patients. The ideal way to test your theories or ideas is to simulate trade the current market for a period of time. Many traders attempt to back-test theories but the problem is that the market is constantly changing. The market we have had in the past 4 years is quite different than the market of the late 1990’s so back-testing your theory on the market of the 1990’s will give you different results than what you will have for this current market.

Reminder: It takes at least 100 trades to fully test a theory. Many traders test a theory on a few trades and then go live in the market only to have disappointing results.

9. Get rid of Traderitis.

Most retail traders trade too often. They react to the market instead ofanticipating the market. Brokers, clearing houses, the news media, stock and options seminars, the exchanges, etc all benefit from retail traders activity. The more trades you do, the more profits your broker, clearing house, news media, and others make. They want you to trade as often as possible and they don’t care if you make money or lose money so long as you trade, trade, trade.

Traderitis is compulsive trading. It is grounded in the false belief that trading more often will result in more profits. It is a falsehood promoted by those who make money from your trading.

In the stock market less is more. If you made money 9 out of 10 trades and those trades were highly profitable with the one having a small loss, versus 100 trades where 55 trades were losses, and 45 were profitable, which group would make you more take home profits? Remember: quality, not quantity. Every time you trade, there are costs involved. If you have many losing trades it is more than just the loss of that trade, it is the cost of the order, the time you spent on it, and the overhead you incur when trading as a business.

Too many traders have Traderitis and are obsessed with trading and those who benefit from this kind of trader continually feed and nourish the fallacy that you must trade every day. You don’t. In fact if you only trade a few ideal patterns with low risk and strong profit potential you will be way ahead of your peers who trade hundreds of times every month. This is a proven statistical fact that nobody wants you to know.

10. Be Self-Reliant and take responsibility for your trades.

When a trader lacks self-confidence, they run around trying to find someone else to make their decisions for them. They buy dozens of newsletters that recommend stocks, watch news on TV thatrecommend stocks, and listen to numerous “gurus” touting great picks. This is the realm of insecure traders and their performance and success in the stock market is dismal.

To be highly successful at anything, you must take responsibility for your own actions. You must learn to depend upon yourself and your ability to make sound decisions. IF you are a novice trader, just starting to trade with limited experience, choose one mentor to guide you while you develop your self-confidence and skills for trading. Don’t listen to every guru and TV commentator as this will only confuse you. Find someone who can help you develop your own unique trading style and wants to teach you to becoming self-reliant.

If you are experienced but have gotten into the bad habit of getting angry after a bad trade, and blame the market, your broker, your trading buddy, your spouse, or whatever for that bad trade, then you need to work on taking charge of your trading. This is the symptom of someone who lacks self-confidence in their own trading decisions. If you are not confident you can choose good stocks, then you should not be trading live in the market. This usually means you didn’t paper trade or simulate trade long enough when you were first learning to trade.

Solution: Go back to the simulator and stop trading live in the market. It doesn’t matter whether it takes a few weeks or a few years. Until you are confident that you and you alone, are fully capable of consistently choosing good trades, you will never be successful as a stock trader or options player. If you aren’t successful paper trading or simulator trading then you will not be successful trading live in the market.

Professional traders make their own choices and their own decisions. They select one or two websites they use for stock and fundamental analysis, they have one primary charting program, and one to two internet brokers they use. They are comfortable and confident with every trade they enter and they remain calm and secure with their decisions even when the occasional trade goes against them. One bad trade doesn’t ruin their self-confidence. And they always use stop losses to minimize the risk of a large loss. They know that nothing is 100% in or out of the market and that being prepared for all contingencies is the best way to maintain consistent success. They rely upon their own technical skills to select stocks and ignore the crowds that are chasing stocks from “recommended” lists.

In Summary:

Most small retail traders are not held in high opinion by the professional traders of the market. The reason is simple. Most retail traders lack emotional control and discipline. They ignore sound trading rules and rush into the market to get rich, thinking it is easy if they only find that perfect strategy. But those few retail traders who do succeed and become successful are held in high regard by the community of traders. If you want to join this group, follow these simple rules:

Practice, experience, and skill will create self-confidence. You can’t over-practice trading. Behave professionally and treat your trading as a business. Develop your own unique trading style and don’t follow the crowd. Be self-reliant and develop self-confidence before trading live in the market. Know your financial self-worth and risk tolerance and strive to continually improve both of these areas. Realize that trading is a process and that you will always be in a professional learning mode. Have a passion for what you do but don’t allow passion to rule your trading decisions.