Most of the analysts polled agree that we can expect an improvement in NFP figures, although Illian Yotov does not allow us to forget that still "the unemployment rate could remain stubbornly high at 9.2%," reflecting the slow progress of economic recovery in the US.
If the NFP results are similar or just slightly better than those from the last two reports it will be "not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and not enough to help the greenback," according to Yohay Elam. Weak numbers could "put downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, since it could boost expectations of QE3" as Sinan Saleh points out. Such a situation would be in Adam Narczewski's opinion "obviously deadly for the dollar, especially against the yen and franc."
Read below the complete forecasts and opinions of the experts.
Bill Hubard - Chief Economist at Markets.com:
"We are expecting another relatively subpar reading on employment for July. Our estimate of a 90,000 rise in payrolls is not as soft as the May and June figures but still not consistent with any improvement in unemployment. We have felt that labour market fundamentals were never as strong as data suggested in the February-April period but not as weak as the past couple of reports. Although Initial jobless claims have been mildly encouraging and business hiring surveys imply job gains, we worry that the unusual backdrop of major policy uncertainty poses downside risk to July readings on a range of activity measures. If the next few days result in a safe hurdle of default risk that preserves financial stability and heads off another shock to confidence, recovery still faces headwinds but we would be more confident about moderate second half growth."Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex:
"After two dismal Non-Farm Payrolls reports which confirmed the Fed’s concerns about the 'frustratingly slow' pace of recovery, we could see a bit more optimistic employment data with consensus forecasts expecting the U.S. economy to add up to 85K jobs in July from 18K in June. The unemployment rate could remain stubbornly high at 9.2%, a daunting reminder of the lack of significant improvement in the U.S. job market. A weaker-than-expected employment report could reinforce the Fed’s view of keeping rates low for 'extended period' and maintaining its accommodative monetary policy, and could put additional pressure on the USD. On the other hand, a more upbeat U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data could become supportive of a USD relief rally, especially if the U.S. averts a credit rating downgrade and the debt ceiling deadlock in Washington comes to an end after the August 2 deadline."Adam Narczewski - Financial analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB:
"The readings for June were a bit puzzling with payrolls exceptionally weak but also with a drop in initial claims and a relatively strong ADP; For July – at this moment- I would see a reading in a proximity of +100k; I wouldn’t be surprised by an upward revision of the data for June either.Another weak report would be obviously deadly for the dollar, especially against the yen and franc, on a surge in QE3 speculations."
Yohay Elam - Analyst at Forex Crunch:
"The US economy and the job market are still in first gear. Another month of a small gain in jobs is likely now, around 50K. This is not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and not enough to help the greenback. The yen and the Swiss franc are likely to gain on such an outcome. A loss of jobs would accelerate the dollar's losses against the aforementioned currencies, but could have the opposite impact on the euro and the pound. Only a gain of over 100K jobs can help the dollar and show that growth is back, but this scenario seems unlikely at the moment."Sinan Saleh - Analyst at ecPulse.com:
"The labor markets has been showing signs of weakness over the past few months, where the pace of hiring had slowed noticeably, but given the recent data from the labor market, it seems that hiring continued, albeit at a slow pace. Accordingly, I expect Non-farm payrolls to rise in July between 50k and 70K jobs.However, another weak result will most likely put downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, since it could boost expectations of QE3, although it will take sustained weakness in the labor market for the Fed to consider QE3, nonetheless, I don’t think that will stop investors from raising bets for QE3."
Andrei Tratseuski - Director of Currency Research at Forex Club:
"We see a slight pickup in Non-Farm Payroll figures in the United States in July, our projections call for figures to print between 50,000 to 75,000. We see a slight pick of NFP figures as Unemployment Claims dropped significantly in the week prior below a pivotal 400,000 mark. If another weak performance in comes from the NFP figures, we shall continue to see appreciation in safe haven assets which include the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. More than anticipated growth in the NFP figures could spur a relieve rally in the United States Dollar which has been suppressed for a prolonged period of time against other trading counterparts."Dr. S. Sivaraman - CEO and owner of i-knowindices.com:
"On Friday 05th August by 12:30 GMT NFP numbers are to be announced along with unemployment rate and hourly earnings m/m. last month there was an addition of 18k.This time the number may be within the range of 23 - 45 k. When compared with earlier lower number the market may show some USD gaining move for the week end.USD is expected to gain considerably against most of the currencies and precious metals during that time."
