Sunday, September 6, 2009

Prediction September 2009...




Salam... selamat bercuti di hujung minggu...bosan tak tau nak watper... sy attach kan sedikit ramalan tuk pergerakan market bulan nie...good luck

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Geppy Monthly


hi guys...

just wanna update for this month preview... i'm looking for more bias downtrend this month..
for my expect geppy wanna go... 137.xx...this month.. wish me luck...i smell some weak votality bullish coz geppy fail break out 'F'(162.xxx) zone area ...wish me luck again..

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Geppy update 22/6/09


lame dah aku tak update blog aku nie...

rindu lak rase nye... okey straight to the point... dari analisa yg tak seberapa nie aku maseh melihat potensi bullish market pada mggu nie... di mana geppy bermain die sekitar 157-165 mggu nie.. hope market menyebelahi analisa ku...good luck

Monday, June 1, 2009

view...geppy...


salam...just analisa gj tuk mggu nie dan bulan nie...di jangka gj akan mencuba 157-165 utk complete wave 4...gud luck

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Next forcast target.. for med term trading...


salam just share aper yg sy analisa dalam blog ini...geppy maseh teguh tuk naik ke 155.xx sebelum membuat satu terjunan teruk..analisa ini berpandu kan correction market sebelum kejatuhan teruk pada tahun lepas...titik fibo 38.2 menjadi perhintungan geppy skang nie pada pandangan sy..

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Renungan..


salam...just pandangan sejenak pergerakan gj..akan melakukan sedikit correction market...sebelum menuju ke destinasi...di jangka kan geppy akan berlegar di sekitar 148-147.xx

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Geppy daily outlook...



hi guys...

long time no update my chart... just my personal preview at geppy daily chart i believe that market wanna continue... bullish again this week to completed subwave v or a (153.60)...wish me luck ...

Friday, May 1, 2009

The Fibonacci Studies and Finance

The Fibonacci Studies and Finance
When used in technical analysis, the golden ratio is typically translated into three percentages: – 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. However, more multiples can be used when needed, such as 23.6%, 161.8%, 423% and so on. There are four primary methods for applying the Fibonacci sequence to finance: retracements, arcs, fans and time zones.

1. Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance. They are calculated by first locating the high and low of the chart. Then five lines are drawn: the first at 100% (the high on the chart), the second at 61.8%, the third at 50%, the fourth at 38.2%, and the last one at 0% (the low on the chart). After a significant price movement up or down, the new support and resistance levels are often at or near these lines. Take a look at the chart below, which illustrates some retracements:


Created Using MetaTrader

2. Fibonacci Arcs
Finding the high and low of a chart is the first step to composing Fibonacci arcs. Then, with a compass-like movement, three curved lines are drawn at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, from the desired point. These lines anticipate the support and resistance levels, and areas of ranging. Take a look at the chart below, which illustrates how these arcs do this:


Created Using MetaTrader

3. Fibonacci Fans

Fibonacci fans are composed of diagonal lines. After the high and low of the chart is located, an invisible vertical line is drawn though the rightmost point. This invisible line is then divided into 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, and lines are drawn from the leftmost point through each of these points. These lines indicate areas of support and resistance. Take a look at the chart below:


Created Using MetaTrader

4. Fibonacci Time Zones
Unlike the other Fibonacci methods, time zones are a series of vertical lines. They are composed by dividing a chart into segments with vertical lines spaced apart in increments that conform to the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.). These lines indicate areas in which major price movement can be expected.


Created Using MetaTrader

Conclusion
These Fibonacci studies are not intended to provide the primary indications for timing the entry and exit of a stock; however, they are useful for estimating areas of support and resistance. Many people use combinations of Fibonacci studies to obtain a more accurate forecast. For example, a trader may observe the intersecting points in a combination of the Fibonacci arcs and resistances. Many more use the Fibonacci studies in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis. For example, the Fibonacci studies are often used with Elliott Waves to predict the extent of the retracements after different waves. Hopefully you can find your own niche use for the Fibonacci studies, and add it to your set of investment tools!

Thursday, April 16, 2009

after recount


hi guy ....

just my personal preview ..at h4 chart .. i believe that geppy already completed.. in sub wave.. ii ..my target still..150.xx wish me luck...if price break...145.80 again.. my count total.. not valid..

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

calling2 MR bull


update gj 15/4/09

salam...ape yg aku nampak skang nie market dah buat rejection price pada harga lower this week....calling2 mr bullish.. expect 150.xx

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Where Next Target???....


hi guys...

just my personal preview....i see gj wanna play in range 143-155..next week...

i believe that market already exit extension market last week..beware if price break below 143.xx...good luck

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Today time break out


update 9/04/09

i'see at h1 chart geppy wanna play in range triangle...looking break out..if geppy complete retracement sub wave e...i ready expect gj complete sub wave 4...next target.. 150.xx

NEW hidden Signal


hi i'm see my chart a pattern double distribution pattern..perform..

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

geppy.. chart ..


update.. 8/04/09

justt my personal preview..i'm looking now gj already break out the ascendingg trend .. i believe that geppy wanna break last lower this week..wish me luck... next target 144.xx

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Preview... Geppy Daily chart,


Preview... chart from counting wave at daily still in major mood correction... FE 161.8%

Playing gap...


saje2...tggu close market pagi sabtu...testing2..Sell kat high...mari kita tgk leh g tak 145 mggu depan..(dah lame aku tak main gap selepas...sejarah itam yg penah belaku pada aku)

Monday, March 30, 2009

17 Factor....guide u

Forex Guide - 17 Key Factors
1. Establish Stop Loss : Before making any forex trade what soever, decide before how much you're willing to lose and you just follow that amount. Set a stop loss level before entering a trade and place it as soon as possible. Never alter your stop loss if your position is losing.


2. Let your profits Run : Never let your emotions govern a trade. Keep in mind why you are entering the market and of course you follow these reasons. You'll be less emotional, you will be better. Do not turn your trading plan, move your stop loss as the market moves in your favor and let your profits run.

3. Do not influence them : You must have your own forex trading strategy and you will comply. If you are influenced by others, you change your mind so incessant, learn to ignore the outside once you have made your choice. You will always find someone who can give you a logical explanation to take a position opposed to yours.

4. Keep sizes and positions within acceptable limits : Forex Traders have a real success when they know that trading is a game of probabilities, and in long term if you stick to your strategies and you implement healthy strategies that you follow, it is likely that you will succeed. To be a successful trader, you will never take a position that could jeopardize substantial capital. In fact, you will find only very rarely win trader risk that more than 10% of its capital in a trade, and 10% is already extremely high. For example, if you deposit 25, 000 USD from your trading account, your maximum loss should be USD 2, 500, representing a maximum loss of 250 pips for a standard lot of 100,000 units (on a trade EUR / USD for example) . Generally, try to put more than 2 to 5% of your available capital.

5. Know your risk ratio Vs your earnings ratio : The ratio of benefit / minimum risk you should use is 2:1. For example, if you are trading long GBP / USD and you want to gain 50 pips, you should not risk more than 25 pips. Another example, you should never risk 40 pips to gain 15. If you do, you lose trades will ruin your chances of profits. The analysis of risk Vs profits is an extremely important for any forex trader.

6. Have a suitable capital :
Always make sure you have enough credit, for example you can ask the following question: "If I lose 50% of my starting capital in a period of 6 months, can I still enable as a trader? . Only if the answer is yes you can start trading. One of the keys to success is independence of mind in the trading, which means your trading freedom must not be influenced by your fear "crippling" to lose.

7. In Trend or Neutral : Learn how to analyze the forex market, is this a trend or rather neutral? In a market trend, follow the trend, in a neutral market, buy low and sell high, since you are using stop loss, and you control your risk.

8. Do not fight against the trend : Do not try to sell high in a bull market or to buy low in a bear market. Follow the good old adage "the trend is your friend!

9. Average : One of the most common mistakes made by traders is the continuous addition of positions on a losing position. I have personally never seen a trader profits on the long term by using such techniques. For short-term trades, preserving capital is the most important, involve too much capital will undermine your success. Trading in the short term, if your strategy is good, the market will evolve in the desired direction in a relatively short time, however if the market gives you wrong, the short-term traders will have to accept that they trade so incorrectly, gets cash losses and seek a new trading idea. Do not leave room for pride in your trading.

10.The idea of yesterday is no longer necessarily valid today:
Regularly we may detect a potential trade and decide to wait until the following day to see if he is confirmed. When you see that everything went exactly as you thought, remember that it may already be too late. Back over your reasoning for this trade, make sure your original reasons are still valid, if not forget this trade. There will always be opportunities for trades, be patient and attack.

11. Understand how the market thinks : Everbody should accept that any information (except for newly published information that the market adjusts immediately) is already included in the price of a currency pair. You must know the indicators to come (especially the most important), and you need to know what is already anticipated by the market. The vast majority of the publications of the market is already anticipated and prices by the market.

12. Trading - a game of probabilities : Nobody can get 100% results in forex trading, you must accept it. Trading is a game of numbers, you win sometimes and lose other times, the idea is simply to win more than you lose. Trading is a game of probability and if you act properly in the long term, you will come out winner. Learn from your mistakes, when you begin, you're more likely to lose in the beginning, look what you've done wrong, try not to get into the emotions, if you meet your strategy and learn from your mistakes, you should see your profits exceed your losses.


13. Know why you are in a trade : Keep a journal of your trades and record exactly why you went into each trade. Do not be impulsive, follow your strategy, that way you will learn what strategies work for you long term and which do not work.


14. If the logic disappears, exit : If you think you are on a low and that it breaks down, exit the trade, and then reassess the situation to make a new decision.


15. Establish a follow up : If you chain 3 or 4 losing trades, take a break! It is obvious something is not working, leave, go drink a coffee,Do not be afraid to take a break.

16. Study : Learn new ideas, keep up to date, and do not trade on the ideas of others, you should always know why you are in a trade.


17. Fun : Enjoy what you do, have fun! However, keep calm, stay as uneffected and never give up - you'll have more success.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Update Gj preview 23 - 27/03/09



Salam...sekadar pandangan ringkas tuk gj mggu depan...pada pandangan sy...pergerakan market gj bias terhadap... bear candle this week.. price di jangka akan berlegar sekitar 139.xx-128.xx sekira nya berjaya break triangle...berhati2...sekiranya price berjaya melepasi 140.xx totaly bias tidak lagi valid..apa2 pun 135.70 menjadi confirmation..trend bertukar...good luck

Monday, March 16, 2009

update 17/03/09


just pandangan untuk geppy hari ini...price close still above weekly pivot...trend maseh nampak bullish...di jangka gj akan mencuba 140.50...jika gj tidak break 137.30 hari ini...

Friday, March 13, 2009

Money Management....

Don't Lose Your Shirt

Here is a little illustration that will show you the difference between risking a small percentage of your capital compared to risking a higher percentage.

Money Management

You can see that there is a big difference between risking 2% of your account compared to risking 10% of your account on a single trade. If you happened to go through a losing streak and lost only 19 trades in a row, you would’ve went from starting with $20,000 to having only $3,002 left if you risked 10% on each trade. You would’ve lost over 85% of your account! If you risked only 2% you would’ve still had $13,903 which is only a 30% loss of your total account.

Of course, the last thing we want to do is lose 19 trades in a row, but even if you only lost 5 trades in a row, look at the difference between risking 2% and 10%. If you risked 2% you would still have $18,447. If you risked 10% you would only have $13,122. That’s less than what you would’ve had even if you lost all 19 trades and risked only 2% of your account!

The point of this illustration is that you want to setup your money management rules so that when you do have a drawdown period (losing streak) you will still have enough capital to stay in the game. Can you imagine if you lost 85% of your account? You would have to make 566% on what you are left with in order to get back to break even. Trust me, you do NOT want to be in that position. In fact, here is a chart that will illustrate what percentage you would have to make to breakeven if you were to lose a certain percentage of your account.

Loss of Capital

You can see that the more you lose, the harder it is to make it back to your original account size. This is all the more reason that you should do everything you can to protect your account.

So by now, I hope you have gotten it drilled in your head that you should only risk a small percentage of your account in each trade so that you can survive your losing streaks and also to avoid a large drawdown in your account. Remember, you want to be the casino…NOT the gambler!

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Weekly Preview 9 - 13 /09 ..




Pandangan market minggu ini maseh lagi ke arah mood correction...di mana market bergerak pada (135.xx-144.xx) kedudukan correction yg besar utk percubaan ke Fibo 23.6% (144.59).Walau bagaimana pun pergerakan ini akan terbatas sekira nya price breakout diagonal support... 135.13 trend correction tidak valid lagi..Good Luck

Thursday, March 5, 2009

FINANCIAL CRISIS AND BAILOUTS

1. I was in England recently and the newspapers were full of dismal reports on bank and business failures, the closure of well-known businesses like Woolworths and Baratt, the increases of unemployment rate with some 700,000 professionals among the 2 million laid off or unable to get jobs. And there were lots more bad news.

2. The British Government is busy bailing out banks and companies with hundreds of billions of pounds but the economy seemed to have gone into recession despite all these efforts. There is no sign that the crisis is on the mend.

3. Malaysia can feel vindicated because all the things we did in the 1997 - 98, crisis, which were condemned by the economists of Europe and America, are now being done by them blatantly and on a massive scale. They talk about trillions of dollars and hundreds of billions of pounds in bailouts. Where the money is coming from is not revealed. Have they been keeping these huge sums for such an emergency?

4. I am not a financier or even an economist. But somehow I think the bailouts are not going to work although they worked in our case.

5. This is because the banks and businesses we bailed out did not get into trouble because they abused the systems or indulged in fraud. They were forced into that situation because the currency was devalued by currency traders and they found themselves unable to meet their commitments. Once they gained access to funds through bailouts they were able to do business again and to repay the money they had received.

6. They were able to do this because, although Malaysia was in recession, the rest of the world was not. There was much less constraint in doing business.

7. The situation today is very different.

8. The collapse of the economies of the rich countries is due to extensive abuses of the financial and monetary systems so much so that the systems broke down completely. I doubt (not being an expert I can only doubt) that the trillions of dollars to bail out the failed banks and financial institutions will enable them or their economies to recover.

9. This is because their huge losses were due to fraud and they cannot recover the billions they had lost through ordinary business, i.e. through the financing of the production of goods and services. Only through doing the same things that had brought them down, i.e. through sub-prime loans, through investments in derivatives and hedge funds, through massive loans to currency traders etc. can they make the billions to return the money they had received through bailouts. Obviously they cannot be allowed to indulge in their old abuses. Through ordinary business it would take years and years to recover the money they had lost. In the meantime all these banks, financial institutions and businesses will belong to the bailor, the Government, i.e. they have effectively been nationalised. And that will spell the end of capitalism and the free market.

10. It should be noted that the East Asian countries have not yet recovered from the 1997 - 98 crisis. Their currencies have not regained their strength to the pre-crisis levels. They have all become poorer, or at least not as rich as they could be had there been no financial crisis.

11. It will be the same with the rich countries. Their GDP and per capita pre-crisis will not be restored despite the trillions they are spending on their bailouts. They are poorer now and will remain relatively poor even after they have put their houses in order.

12. I may be wrong of course. Maybe by more trillions of dollars of bailouts the rich would achieve recovery. But I have my doubts.

13. Unfortunately the poor countries will also become poorer.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

This week Preview...


Just my personal preview ...for this week...i'm looking geppy play in range area 135-144...price close above Pivot point...see this week...price wanna strong to pull back again....beware...at 133 range area zone...wish me luck again....

Monday, February 23, 2009

bounce Back...


nice...zone...timing...GJ menlonjak naik....utk membuat new high yg baru....kelihatan geppy...dalam retracement side...sebelum naik...testing 23.6 % 134.xx..

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Wang Kertas : Penipuan terbesar dalam sejarah manusia



Story yg agak panjang tapi bagus utk kita tau...

Wang Kertas : Penipuan terbesar dalam sejarah manusia

Hari ini kalau ada yang berazam untuk tidak mahu menggunakan wang kertas ,orang berkenaan ‘wajib’ berpindah ke dalam hutan. Begitu sekali sekeping wang kertas bergelar ‘not’ menguasai seluruh kehidupan manusia.

“ Apa itu wang kertas?” wacana tentang riba dan wang emas tidak mungkin lengkap kalau tidak menyentuh soal wang kertas kerana kedua-dua matawang ini dan riba ada hubung kaitnya dari segi sejarah.

Sejarah mencatatkan bahawa antara wang yang paling awal muncul di dunia ini adalah wang emas yang digunakan pada empayar Rom di Eropah, berkurun lama sebelum kedatangan Islam di bumi Arab. Wang emas terus digunakan oleh dunia Islam dan bahagian-bahagian dunia yang lain setelah keadatangan Nabi Muhammad s.a.w. Kearajaan Melayu Melaka pada kurun ke-14 Masehi juga menggunakan wang emas.

Namun, penggunaannya berakhir pada 1924 berikut runtuhnya kerajaan Khilafah Islamiah terakhir iaitu Khalifah Uthmaniah yang berpusat di Istanbul, Turki. Selepas itu, dunia beralih kepada wang kertas yang bersandarkan emas.

Namun, sejarah wang kertas diwarnai misteri, tipu daya dan pembelitan yang dahsyat. Warga Amerika Syarikat, G Edward Griffin dalam buku The Creature From Jekyll Island berkata bahawa titik bermulanya penipuan wang kertas adalah pada 1910. Mesyuarat misteri di pulau Jekyll pada tahun itu membawa kepada penubuhan the Federal Reserve Department (FRD) pada tahun 1913 yang keahliannya bukan di kalangan rakyat atau institusi kerajaan Amerika Syarikat . Sebaliknya dianggotai oleh syarikat milik persendirian asing. Penggunaan perkataan ‘federal’ (persekutuan) ke atas sesuatu yang berbentuk persendirian adalah pembohongan yang nyata. Kongres Amerika Syarikat pula terpaksa meluluskannya secara curi-curi.

Jabatan ini kemudiannya mentadbir segala urusan kewangan Negara Amerika Syarikat., antaranya mencetak wang kertas Dolar Amerika dan memperkenalkan Fractional Reserve Bangking (FRB) atau Fractional Reserve Requirement (FRR) yang menjadi asas perjalanan sesebuah bank. Sehingga hari ini, FRB digunakakn oleh industri perbankan di seluruh dunia termasuk Malaysia untuk mencipta wangsesuka hati dalam jumlah yang berlipat kali ganda melebihi kekayaan sebenar.

Berikutan penubuhan FRD, banyak peristiwa besar berlaku sehingga membolehkan British mengusai Bandar Jerusalem pada 1919. Penguasaan itu menandakan berakhirnya era Perang Salib yang berlangsung selama 250 tahun antara umat Islam dan Kristian. Dinia pun berubah dengan mendadak. Kemuncaknya ialah kejatuhan Kerajaan Khalifah Uthmaniah.

Peristiwa demi peristiwa terus mengejutkan dunia, antaranya Perang Dunia Pertama dan krisis ekonomi dunia besar-besaran pada 1929. Pada 1944, muncul pula perjanjian Bretton Woods yang melibatkan 44 buah Negara dunia yang bersetuju untuk menyandarkan mata wang kertas masing-masing kepada Dolar Amerika dengan jaminan bahawa USD35 bersamaan dengan satu auns emas.

Negara-negara dunia tidak lagi menyandarkan mata wang kertas kepada rizab emas masing-masing seperti sebelum ini. Setahun selepas Dolar Amerika mendapat ‘daulat’ berkenaan, International Monetory Fund (IMF) pun ditubuhkan. Pada 1948, Negara Israel mendapat pengiktirafan sebagai sebuah Negara berdaulat di tengah-tengah Negara Palestin yang sah.

Seterusnya pada 1971, kerajaan Amerika Syarikat pimpinan Ricard Nixon hampir bankrap gara-gara Perang Vietnam dan masalah deficit imbangan pembayaran yang berterusan. Tuntutan rasmi terhadap rizab emas Amerika Syarikat melambung kepada USD32 bilion sedangkan rizab emas yang ada hanya satu pertiga. Keyakinan terhadap Dolar Amerika punah. Berduyun-duyun bank pusat negara lain memeras ugut Amerika Syarikat dengan cara menebus pegangan Dolar Amerika masing-masing. Emas mengalir keluar dari Amerika Syarikat lalu dengan sendirinya meruntuhkan nilai Dolar Amerika.

Namun Amerika licik bertindak dengan memutuskan ikatan antara Dolar Amerika dan emas. Ini bermakna Amerika Syarikat memungkiri perjanjian Bretton Woods dan bertindak secara unilateral untuk menguburkan system piawaian emas.

Selepas 15 ogos 1971, doalr tidak lagi bersandarkan kepada emas. Sejak itu, nilai dolar ditentukan oleh kuasa permintaan dan penawaran pasaran tukaran wang asing. Kesannya, semua matawang dunia berubah menjadi matawang fiat iaitu matawang yang bernilai sifar. Ini bermakna setiap Negara bebas mencetak wang kertas tana perlu bersandarkan kepada apa-apa rizab. Kalau ada pun, ia dalam jumlah yang kecil seperti yang ditetapkan oleh Special Drawing Rights IMF. Bayangkan betapa liciknya permainan ini.

Pun begitu apa jua tipu daya tetap ada kelemahannya seperti mana yang disebut oleh Allah dalam al-Quran,Firmannya :

الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا يُقَاتِلُونَ فِي سَبِيلِ اللَّهِ وَالَّذِينَ كَفَرُوا يُقَاتِلُونَ فِي سَبِيلِ الطَّاغُوتِ

فَقَاتِلُوا أَوْلِيَاءَ الشَّيْطَانِ إِنَّ كَيْدَ الشَّيْطَانِ كَانَ ضَعِيفً

Maksudnya : “Orang-orang yang beriman dan berperang di jalan Allah dan orang-orang yang kafir berjalan di jalan thaghut, sebab itu perangi lah kawan-kawan syaitan itu kerana tipu daya syaitan itu adalah lemah.” [surah an-Nisa’, ayat 76]

Sekarang, ‘tabir’ yang melindungi wajah sebenar wang kertas semakin terungkai. Dunia mula mengetahui apa ada di sebalik wang kertas. Wang kertas tidak mempunyai nilai intrinsik seperti mana wang sebenar (contohnya emas, perak, sebakul barangan dan lain-lain).

Nilai yang dicetak di atas wang kertas kini ditentukan oleh kerajaan yang mengeluarkannya dan kuasa pasaran (market forces). Ini bermakna nilainya bergantung kepada permintaan dan manipulasi pihak yang mengeluarkannya. Ia hanya lah ‘janji’ untuk membayar dan pihak yang mengeluarkannya tidak semesti menunaikan ‘janji’ itu. Atas inilah, sebagai contoh, pada wang kertas Ringgit Malaysia yang kita gunakan sekarang, tercetak ayat, “wang kertas ini sah diperlakukan dengan nilai….”.

Wang kertas digelar fiat kerana ia bukan berbentuk komoditi tetapi dikeluarkan oleh pihak tertentu dan dijamin nilainya oleh pihak yang mengeluarkan. Pengertian sebenar disebalik wang kertas ialah sekadar ‘sekeping kertas’ yang diterima pakai untuk semua urusan jual beli. Asas penerimaan kertas ini hanya atas dasar kepercayaan terhadapnya.Kepercayaan semata-mata! Itu sahaja! Sekiranya di suatu masa kelak, semua orang hilang kepercayaan terhadap ‘kertas ini’ lalu ia tidak lagi berguna, sekalipun jumlahnya berguni.

Sejarah membuktikan bahawa dalam peperangan mata wang sesebuah Negara dilanda krisis akan hancur lalu wang kertas dilambakkan seperti bukit di satu tempat dan dimansuhkan dengan cara membakarnya hingga hangus. Di Malaysia, sebahagian besar generasi sebelum merdeka masih lagi mengingati istilah ‘duit pisang’ atau ‘duit Jepun’ yang menyaksikan berguni duit kertas tidak mampu untuk membeli secawan beras. Ungkapan ‘duit tak laku’ bukan lah sesuatu yang asing buat orang lama yang pernah melalui pengalamn buruk itu.

Selain wang kertas, wang fiat juga merujuk kepada wang dalam bentuk angka dalam akaun, hutang-hutang yang dikeluarkan oleh bank atau institusi kewangan dan kad plastic digital. Wang ini tidak disokong oleh apa-apa aset yang nyata. Nilainya mudah dimainkan oleh speculator matawang yang berniat jahat, tamak dan tidak berperikemanusian.

Krisis ekonomi Asia pada 1997 adalah contoh yang paling dekat dengan kita. Spekulasi dan manipulasi menyebabkan berlaku susut nilai matawang atau lebih buruk, matawang itu langsung tidak bernilai. Keadaan yang dinamakan ‘money meltdown’ ini sudah pun berlaku dalam tahun-tahun kebelakangan (kejatuhan Dolar Amerika pada 1973 dan 1980). Keadaan ini pasti akan berulang. Krisis ekonomi dunia diramal menjadi lebih teruk berbanding pada tahun 1929.

Sistem ekonomi kapitalis, bank dan institusi kewangan dengan cara tidak bertanggungjawab telah mencipta wang fiat dengan banyak di pasaran sehingga menyebabkan inflasi. Wang itu dicipta melalui kepelbagaian deposit, memberi hutang dan mengenakan faedah. Setiap wang fiat yang didepositkan ke dalam bank akan mencambahkan tiga wang fiat lagi yang boleh diberikan kepada individu dan syarikat perniagaan. Ekonomi ini adalah ekonomi palsu yang tidak berasaskan kepada pengeluaran sebenar.

Sesetengah kerajaan mencetak wang sewenang-wenang tanpa bersandarkan kepada pengeluaran sebenar dalam Negara bagi kepentingan pemerintah dan pengekalan kuasa.

Apabila semakin banyak wang dicetak, nilai wang fiat akan berkurangan dan menyebabkan inflasi. Kuasa beli rakyat pula akan berkurangan. Satu wang fiat tidak memungkinkan kita membeli barangan yang sama kita beli seperti sepuluh tahun yang lalu. Ini menjadikan nilai wang kertas fiat hanya terletak pada barangan yang kita beli hari ini. Sebagai contoh, tiga puluh tahun lalu, seseorang yang bergaji RM 1000 sebulan mampu memiliki kereta import berjenama dan sebuah banglo. Hari ini, gaji sebanyak RM 20 000 sebulan belum tentu menjanjikan kereta import dan banglo. Harga barangan menjadi terlalu tinggi iaitu meningkat berkali ganda berbanding peningkatan dalam pendapatan.

Orang sekarang berkerja siang dan malam serta melakukan bermacam-macam jenis pekerjaan, tetapi masih berada di dalam keadaan kekurangan. Harta pada hakikatnya dimiliki oleh bank atau institusi kewangan. Hampir semua orang berhutang dengan bank atau institusi keewangan dan pada bila-bila masa boleh menjadi papa kedana kerana hutang itu. Malah hutang bank juga boleh diwarisi sehingga ke anak cucu.

Kadar pengangguran dan kegagalan syarikat perniagaan pula semakin meningkat dari hari ke hari. Semua ini angkara sistem kewangan fiat yang menyebabkan ekonomi berkembang secara tidak stabil serta mewujudkan jurang besar antara golongan berada dengan golongan tidak berada.

Jelas wang kertas adalah wang yang tidak adil dan tidak jujur. Apabila Amerika Syarikat meluluskan penubuhan FRD dan Amerika Syarikat mengadakan perjanjian Bretton Woods pada 1944, seluruh ummah sebenarnya sudah ditipu ‘hidup-hidup’. Inilah penipuan terbesar dalam sejarah manusia.

Sumber : Milenia Muslim, Julai

Layan perasaan..

Aku dapat forward message dari friendster tentang perkara yang lelaki perlu tahu. Ala baca sekajap je sok dah lupa. Tapi tak adil bagi lelaki, dia perlu tahu kami juga. Aku terus mencari untuk perempuan. Heheh..

Lelaki perlu tahu yang perempuan:

  1. Sensitif : Bukan bermaksud suka merajuk, tapi hanya ingin bermanja dan mendapatkan perhatian.
  2. Cerewet : Bukan bermaksud FUSSY tak tentu hala, kadang ingin LELAKI mengikut kata-katanya sekali sekala.
  3. Halus : Ibarat sehelai sutera, cantik, mulus, lembut dan mudah tercarik dan koyak. Walaupun seorang wanita memaafkan seseorang yang lain atas sebab sesalahan, biasanya WANITA akan ingat kesalahan tersebut untuk disimpan jadi pengajaran. Bukan DENDAM.
  4. Ikhlas : Ikhlas seorang wanita tak perlu diragui.
  5. Korban : WANITA sanggup berkorban apa saja untuk seseorang yang amat disayangi, termasuk ibu bapa, anak-anak dan suami. WANITA amat tabah.
  6. Prihatin : Sentiasa memerhatikan keadaan sekeliling dalam diam.
  7. Manja : Walaupun dia adalah seorang WANITA yang pandai berdikari, naluri seorang WANITA masih lagi tetap seorang WANITA. Suka bermanja bukan hanya kepada insan yang bernama LELAKI , namun juga sesama kaum.
  8. Ego : WANITA yang terlalu sayangkan kekasihnya sanggup menolak ketepi EGOnya apabila bersemuka dengan yang dicintai.
  9. Cinta : CINTA pertama bagi wanita adalah yang paling dalam dan tulus.
  10. Seks : SEKs bukanlah segala-galanya buat WANITA kerana WANITA diciptakan dengan 9 nafsu dan satu akal. NAFSU yang banyak dan tidak tertumpu kepada satu saja. LELAKI pula dijadikan dengan 9 akal dan satu nafsu. Fungsi lelaki adalah membimbing WANITA dan bukanmenghanyutkann ya.

“Peranan LELAKI dalam kehidupan WANITA adalah sebagai pelindung dan bukan sebagai pemusnah. WANITA diciptakan oleh ALLAH swt dari tulang rusuk kiri dan untuk dipeluk dan dimanja, bukan untuk dikasari. Maka lelaki haruslah memahami HATI dan PERASAAN WANITA”

Perempuan juga perlu tahu yang lelaki:

  1. Lelaki juga boleh menjadi seseorang yang begitu sensitif dan mengambil berat (prihatin).
  2. Jika seseorang lelaki meminati wanita, wanita itu tak semestinya cantik. Cukup dengan budi bahasa dan kesopanan yang tinggi. Malah lelaki boleh menyukai wanita yang mempunyai banyak persamaan dengannya samada dari segi pemikiran atau minat. Oleh itu, banyak yang boleh dibualkan atau dikongsi bersama.
  3. Kebanyakan masa, lelaki sebenarnya tidak mengetahui perasaan sebenar yang dirasakan oleh seorang wanita.
  4. Lelaki boleh menerima penolakan dengan baik.
  5. Lelaki cuba menonjolkan sikap kelakiannya untuk menambat hati wanita…
  6. Lelaki memang dilahirkan dgn perasaan yg kuat terhadap wanita..sebab itu mereka suka melihat wanita, menjeling wanita dan menonton Baywatch! Atau mencuci mata di tepi pantai atau swimming pool.
  7. Kebanyakan lelaki resah bila berhadapan dengan situasi ingin mengajak wanita keluar kali pertama!
  8. Lelaki cuba meniru gaya selebriti atau berlagak macho hanya kerana ingin memikat hati wanita.
  9. Bila lelaki cakap..”Emm. tengoklah dulu”..itu seringkali bermaksud dia berkata tidak atau kurang setuju.
  10. Bila lelaki cakap direct to the point dalam sesuatu hal, dia sebenarnya ingin bersikap jujur dan berterus-terang dan mengharapkan wanita memahami maksudnya.
  11. Kebanyakan lelaki yang nampak ‘desperate’, datang dari sekolah all boys! (Macam aku kot)
  12. Adalah biasa lelaki cemburu terutamanya apabila perempuan asyik menyebut nama lelaki lain.
  13. Lelaki tak boleh belajar kesemuanya pasal perempuan dari library atau buku semata2. Oleh itu mereka selalu keliru dengan sikap perempuan..dan tak faham kenapa perempuan bersikap begitu begini…
  14. Kadang2 lelaki perlu mengetahui lebih mendalam tentang bagaimana berhadapan dengan perempuan supaya hubungan dapat berjalan dengan lebih baik.
  15. Betapa hebatnya lelaki itu bersikap romeo dan ‘flirting’ dengan ramai wanita..dia tetap hanya ada seorang teman wanita yang istimewa…yang lain hanya kawan..:)
  16. Bila lelaki tertengok dada wanita dan wanita itu menyedari…maafkan saja. Kebanyakan lelaki tak sengaja….Mereka merasakan kejadian wanita itu begitu indah!
  17. Bila sesuatu hubungan putus di tengah jalan, lelaki juga rasa bersedih..cuma dia tak menunjukkannya kesedihannya di depan orang.
  18. Bila seorang perempuan meminati seorang lelaki, perempuan itu patut bagi hint! Mana tau lelaki itu juga menaruh minat. Senang usahanya nanti…
  19. Adalah memalukan bagi lelaki jika tak berupaya menolong wanita.
  20. Kebanyakan lelaki cukup lemah dgn air mata perempuan. Mereka lebih tewas sekiranya air mata itu mengalir dari perempuan yg dikasihi. Sebab itu dikatakan air mata senjata perempuan.

Lelaki bukanlah sempurna 100%, walau bagaimanapun rupanya atau pandangan luarannya. Jadi, perempuan janganlah mengharapkan semua yang hebat dari lelaki! Mereka juga normal dan mempunyai kelemahan!

Friday, February 13, 2009

New zone..


update 13/2/09

aku masuk post short...for first swing side... ke TP 125.xx ape yg aku nampak price bermain di new zone... hope tak kene SL 134.70..wish me luck

Thursday, February 12, 2009



waiting for breakout.. geppy 128.xx...to try create double bottom (125.xx) first before breakout again..122

Monday, February 9, 2009



Update 10/2/09

just my personal preview at weekly chart...for this week price still play in 128.xx - 141.xx(fibo retracement...)...for this month i believe that geppy wanna create the bull candle end of this month...see some larger correction mode...for major TF..

Thursday, February 5, 2009

GJ menduga SL aku pada 136.xx


update 6/2/09

kelihatan gj cuba complete retracement side pada 76.4 sudah mengena...adakah trend down akan berlaku...semua 5 Post Sell aku dah masuk dari area ,126,128.129.131.133...menunggu masa pergerakan seterusnya....SL kat 136 nie dah mula berada di paras kritikal..waiting for result NFP..sok sama ada kene SL or .....sebalik nyer

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Pergerakan Sideway market (price bergerak dari kiri ke kanan)


update chart...5/2/09

kelihatan geppyi dalam mood correction...still dalam range perjalanan 76.4%....perjalanan price dari kiri ke kanan...mula menunjuk kan tanda2 breakout semakin hampir..

Monday, February 2, 2009

Patience is key....


hi guys....

just my personal preview...geppy chart at h4 now se...geppy still in mode sideway... wanna complete 76.4 % structure before move down...beware...at critical price 132.xx price play in 130-125 before change trend...

*critical news.. ADP data
* Non Farm Payroll...


Thursday, January 29, 2009

Breakout diagonal support (end of ascending market)


update 30/1/09

just my personal preview geppy at h4 chart...i see price now break my diagonal support...this is time to running out sideway market..

bunkface - situasi

Layan lagu Jam... release tension



Diskriminasi menjatuhkan aku
Reputasi kini menjadi bisu
dan aku , ku layu
disitu

Mengharapkan sesuatu yang baru
itulah impian aku

C/O
Dan bila kau menghilang
Musnah la, musnah impian
tuk menggapai bintang
terangi hidup ku
Ku mahu kau tahu
engkaulah, destinasiku
dalam ingatanku .. oh oh oh…

Kerana diri ini tak daya lagi
menempuh hidup yang ku temui
dan aku , ku tunggu .. oh oh oh
disitu

Mengharapkan sesuatu yang baru
itulah impian aku

C/O dan C/O lagi… =)

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Next month Target


update pair fav aku...mula mengisi post tuk hold market pada bulan depan paper pun

TP 1 115
TP2 110....

Soros stopped betting againt pound afrer $1.40


Soros Stopped Betting Against Pound After $1.40 Level (Update1)

By Simon Kennedy

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros, who made $1 billion selling the pound in 1992, said he is no longer betting against the U.K. currency after it reached $1.40.

“I did actually foresee the fall in sterling and that was one of the positions we carried,” he told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Below $1.40 “it seemed to me the risk-reward was no longer clear.”

Soros said today that he has made money from the financial crisis. The British government’s efforts to protect the banking system from the turmoil last week led to a drop in the pound to the lowest level against the dollar since 1985. The currency traded at $1.4313 as of 12:56 p.m. in London today.

“We did have a short position in sterling, but it doesn’t mean I’m bearish on sterling today or bullish,” Soros said. “It will continue to fluctuate.”

Soros’s comments contrast with those of Jim Rogers, who co- founded the Quantum Fund with him and is now chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings. Rogers said Jan. 20 that the pound was “finished” because of turmoil in the banking system and a decline in North Sea oil output.

Hungarian-born Soros gained fame more than 16 years ago when he broke the Bank of England’s defense of the pound and drove the currency from Europe’s system of linked exchange rates. Other successful trades included a bet that the deutsche mark would rise after the collapse of the Berlin wall and a wager that Japanese stocks would start to tumble in 1989.

Brown’s Comments

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has so far resisted addressing sterling’s plunge and dismissed the warnings of investors by saying the government’s policy is to target inflation and not the exchange rate.

“The experience of targeting the pound and targeting the exchange rate has not been one particularly beneficial to this country,” Brown said today in Parliament.

Soros said his long-held pessimism in the outlook in the world economy allowed him to make money during the crisis.

“I was able to protect my capital and get a rate of return,” he said. “In the current environment, to be in positive territory is itself an accomplishment.”

Soros said President Barack Obama’s administration will struggle to revive the U.S. economy and financial system because President George W. Bush’s administration was “behind the curve” in responding to the crisis and now the money required is now “too big.” He urged the government to recapitalize banks and reduce the amount of housing foreclosures.

“The situation will continue to deteriorate,” he said.

Soros said the widening gap between the interest rates Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal must pay investors to borrow for 10 years and the rate charged to Germany reflects “structural weaknesses in the construction of the euro” and the lack of a common fiscal authority.

Governments will eventually have to help each other out because individually they lack the “borrowing power” to protect their banking systems, Soros said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Davos at skennedy4@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 28, 2009 08:33 EST


perghh...gchf nie betul2 menduga skill trading aku....aku bajet die retrace 50% die retrace 61.8% lak...dah sangkut satu post floating...kat area 50%..paper pun aku masuk order lagi kat 61.8%...utk post yg ke 2...al maklum la....market still dalam correction...bak kate org time sideway nie duk tepi tggu conformation dl...aku lak...time camnie sibuk2 duk masuk post...betul2 tak dengar kata...paper pun :-

TP 1 = 1.5672
TP2 = 1.5173....

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Master Ur Trading EQ

How To Increase Your Trading Emotional IQ



Did you know that the traders who lose the most money in trading are some of the most intelligent people?

So what’s causing them to lose money?

If you asked them, they would probably have different answers as to why this happens. They might blame the markets, politics, their system – or may even point to themselves.

From my experience dealing with many traders, it usually boils down to how traders, like you, manage their emotions and mindset. This is what I call trading emotional IQ.

Does the following scenario sound familiar? Markets are very volatile and all bets are off. You’ve forgotten your trading plan. You try to listen to every bit of news, and become more and more confused. You either become very trigger-happy or you freeze. The results are usually the same…you lose a lot of money and opportunities.

So what differentiate traders who don’t make money from those who make a lot of money? It’s the way we handle our emotions and mindset.

Have you ever noticed that when you say the same thing to two different people, one laughs at you and the other screams? That’s an indication of how they handle situations, and ultimately, what kind of results they are getting. By observing this, you can determine their emotional IQ.

We cannot deny our emotions. They are there. We are only in control of how we react to them. The good news is that we can modify our reactions and hence improve our trading results.

So what are some of the situations you are facing and how can you increase your trading emotional IQ?

1. How Do You Handle Success?

It’s very dangerous to win if you cannot control your emotions. You can become reckless, throw away your plans and trade from ego. When you trade from ego, you are gambling and letting your emotion take over. You might win in the short run – however, you’ll lose in the long run.

I had a client who after winning several trades would put in a trade that would wipe out all of his winnings. He would then wonder if trading was the right business for him or not. He was questioning the business instead of his behaviour…

The other tendency is to ignore your wins and assume that it’s no big deal. After all, you were expecting to win. Does this sound familiar? If so, you are not valuing your accomplishment. You are assuming that winning is a given. You’re forgetting that trading is about playing a game of probabilities. Every win deserves an acknowledgement.

What should you do when you win?

o Don’t take your wins for granted – take credit for the good job you’ve done.

o Celebrate it.

o Notice what you did that worked.

o Determine if there was anything you could have done better.

o Repeat the process that worked for you.

2. How Do You Handle Losses?

Usually, you are in two camps.

One is to blame yourself and become really frustrated and angry. You can’t forget the loss and your focus turns toward the negative P&L. When you are in a bad mood, you are unable to notice other opportunities that are right in front of you. Therefore, you end up losing a lot more.

The second camp is, you try to ignore the loss altogether and can’t see it for what it is. You become anxious to make up the loss. Therefore, you take unwarranted risk and you increase your position. Then you lose even more. You get into a vicious cycle – the more you lose, the more you risk and then you lose even more…

What are the steps you can take to manage your emotions when you are losing?

o Don’t make it global – Don’t say, “I always lose. I have bad luck. Markets are always against me.” By saying these, you set negative expectations and drain your energy.

o Think about your losing trade as an isolated event.

Have you noticed what successful basketball players do? When they miss a shot, they don’t think about the shot they have missed – they concentrate on the next shot.

When you lose a trade, don’t focus on the loss. Focus on what is ahead of you.

o When you lose, don’t lose the lessons. Look at:

§ What worked
§ What did not work
§ What did you learn about
- Market?
- Yourself?
- The security that you were trading?
- The methods that you were using?

3. How Do You Handle Fear?

A common way that people handle fear is to assume that they don’t know enough. They study more, read more, find different gurus to listen to, take more classes and attend more seminars. They say to themselves, “If I know more, then I won’t make any mistakes and won’t lose any money or opportunities.”

The reality is that by staying out of the game, you are not really learning how to play the game.

Think about an athlete. They can hear the rules, read and learn them. However, unless they are in the game and practicing, they are not going to get good at it

What are the steps you can take to handle your fear?

o As Nike says, Just DO IT!!!

o Remember something that you have done well. Remember how you felt and what you said to yourself. How did you see yourself…? This way, you will feel better about yourself and can move forward.

o Celebrate your mistakes and nervousness.

I know this might sound funny. However, when we were growing up, we learned that if we did something wrong, we would be punished. To avoid punishment, most of us were afraid of making mistakes – therefore, we experimented less and less. We didn’t take serious action unless we were sure of the outcome. Does this sound familiar?

By celebrating our mistakes, we are saying to ourselves that it’s OK to experiment. It is OK to try new things. Then we are more encouraged to change things a bit.

o Your past results are not equal to your future results – if you have failed in the past, it doesn’t mean that you are going to fail again.

o Know that you do not have to prove anything to anyone. Just take action…

4. Are You Being Present?

Are you allowing the markets to dictate your mood? So, when you win, you feel euphoric and when you lose, you feel angry? Are you equating your performance with who you are and how you feel?

If you are bored, do you try to find a trade even when there is none and thus sabotage yourself?

Do you get distracted with the news and let it impact your moods?

When you are not in the right state of mind, it does not help your trading.

As you think about a successful athlete, what emotional characteristic comes to mind? You notice that they are focused. They do not allow what happened a second ago to impact what they are going to do next – or they are going to lose.

What are some techniques you can use to change your mood?

o Use the pause method. Take a break.

o Take some deep breaths – by doing so, you’ll increase the amount of oxygen to your brain and thus relax your muscles.

o Listen to uplifting music. Studies have shown that one of the quickest ways to change your mood is by listening to music. When you go to the movies, the way they try to get you feel a certain emotion is by selecting the right music for the scene. Think about the “Mission Impossible” movies. What music comes to mind?

o Change your focus – concentrate on something that you enjoy.

o Have gratitude – think about the things that you are grateful for. Creativity and abundance come from a place of gratitude.


5. Are You Taking Responsibility?

What I mean by “taking responsibility” is to manage your own expectations.

Remember, trading is risky – the outcome is based on probabilities. It’s not guaranteed.

When trading, ask, “If I take this risk, am I able to accept and embrace it?” If you cannot, then this trade is not right for you.

If you cannot accept any risk, then you are in the wrong business.

You may have heard the saying, “Do not see the market as you want to see it. See it as it is.”

Your success is not about what is happening in the markets. It’s about your reaction to these markets.

Albert Einstein said, “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them. “

update geppy...for today....

bias geppy touch lower TL.....123.xx ..ceh mcm start lumba lari pulak..bia la org nak cakap die naik ari nie...aku tetap nampak die kat bawah..enta betul ke tak ari nie aku main hentam jerk

update chart gchf..28/01/09

bagun pepagi ngah godek2 tenet...tetibe jerk aku tgk pair nie di ambang...maut...adakah retracement 50% menandakan tamatnya tempoh correction market...adus...pening kepala...jika ia benar berlaku...jauh perjalanan pair nie....

Monday, January 26, 2009

bagi sapa2 yg tak leh download link kat bawah nie ....cube try link nie

http://uploads.bizhat.com/file/378433

Thursday, January 22, 2009


waa....geppy...melantun naik ar.....let see...how long correction complete....
Okey.....ari nie aku nak share sedikit Note...yg aku wat...enjoy it...

http://www.savefile.com/files/1976938

Wednesday, January 21, 2009


hit...my plan for this week 119....

Geppy...testing.... 122.xx

Tuesday, January 20, 2009


salam...update...pair geppy...selepas melihat satu pertanda bear rejection...pada price...di tf h4...gudnite....next retrace ment 38.2...before down

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Waiting....the nice break out


just my personal preview...For Geppy... i'm waiting ...a breakout price at my trendline..

Friday, January 16, 2009

EUR/USD Forecast After the ECB Rate Decision

The European Central Bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 2%, yet in our opinion, the rate cut came a bit too late, and we expect more EUR/USD weakness going forward on speculation that we may have a considerable deterioration of the euro zone economy in 2009.

The Euro Zone Is Experiencing a Significant Slowdown, Trichet Said

In the introductory statement ahead of the regular press conference, Jean-Claude Trichet sounded very pessimistic. The president of the ECB said the euro zone is experiencing a significant slowdown and “today’s decision takes into account that inflationary pressures have continued to diminish, owing in particular to the further weakening in the economic outlook.” Looking further ahead, he said that we may “continue to see global economic weakness and very sluggish domestic demand persisting in the coming quarters as the impact of the financial tensions on activity continues.”

Euro/Dollar Forecast for 2009 (Updated)

It is always difficult to make exchange rate forecasts, particularly when the currency market is very volatile. Even so, in this article, we argue that a considerable deterioration of the euro zone economy in 2009 could lead to a significant shift of interest rate differentials in favor of the US dollar and keep the EUR/USD under pressure over the next few months. Indeed, recent economic data points toward weakening of real GDP growth in the euro zone economy, and a more accommodative monetary policy by the European Central Bank could be needed to prevent the region from falling into a much deeper recession. On the other hand, the recent selloff in commodities, particularly in oil, should alleviate some downward pressure from the US economy, which has been running a current account deficit of nearly 5% of GDP.

Chart
Source: Bloomberg

The ECB Underestimated the Size of the Financial Crisis

The biggest housing and credit bubble in history continues to threaten the entire global financial system, and the once-resilient euro zone economy is slowly succumbing to tight credit conditions and a slowing global economy. Initially, European policy leaders thought the financial crisis would be confined to the United States, and the ECB was slower to act than the Federal Reserve. Inflation in the euro zone was well above a level consistent with price stability, and the ECB was concerned with second-round effects of energy prices in wage and price setting. However, the credit storm that began in the US ended up affecting the euro zone and European banks were forced to write off $229 billion out of a global total of $588 billion in losses related the collapse of the US subprime market. While no one can deny that Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, has done a lot to boost the euro as a credible alternative for the US dollar, it is also becoming clear that the ECB perhaps underestimated the size of the financial crisis by keeping interest rates too high for too long. In fact, the euro zone is now in a technical recession and facing the most serious test since the euro was introduced to the world financial markets in 1999.

Risks for This Trade

In 2008, the US dollar appreciated against several of the world’s most heavily traded currencies. To some extent, investors were reluctant to take leveraged positions on higher yielding currencies, and the US dollar was helped by a strong demand from financial institutions seeking a safe-haven currency. However, holding a long position in the US dollar also involves some risks. In fact, the US economy is likely to continue to face substantial challenges in 2009, including further job losses and a rapid deleveraging in the financial sector. In addition, some investors are concerned with the fiscal impact of the rescue plan, which could cost almost 5% of GDP. Currently, the United States federal government runs a deficit of $438 billion, or 3% of gross domestic product, and the bailout plan could push the fiscal deficit next year to $1 trillion, or 7% of GDP.

The Dollar Emerging from the Sea of Japan

Hi again, Everyone!

Despite the U.S. CPI coming “relatively in line”, the TIC Treasury Outflows Data atrocious , and Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production down… we are still making a decent bounce in our major “Match” of the Dollar Yen.

Here is our same Daily view from my previous Post…and we are grinding out some daylight here with the Dollar bounce off of Support.

Be sure to click once for the Captures, as most of the Analysis is on the Charts!

(Post-Time is 15:25 GMT)

Here on two Hourly captures, we can see the strength of the counter-trend move here…

We will meet again for the Sydney Open on Sunday and check our progress here with some more ideas!

A good weekend to all, and we’ll see you then!

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Historically low interest rates to boost economic recovery

The week we leave behind has reminded us the negative economiic moment we are goingh through, a situation with complicated solutions, we have seen some exampler this week, namely in England ith the Boe cuttin interest rates once again, to 1.5% this time, the lowest Bank Rate since the bank started to set monetary policy in 1694.

In the Euro Area economy continues looking gloomier and gloomier, with unemployment figures rising at a fast pace and industrial production declining as fast. germany, the main economy in the Euro aresa has seen evidence of the decline of its Industrial sector, manufacturing production flass continuously, and factory orders have weakened to historically low levels.

The situation in the U.S. does not show any considerable improvement. The FOMC minutes have described the current situationin rather negative terms, and the employment report this week has confirmed the worst expectations, 2008 has closed with a loss of 2.3 million jobs in the U.S., the wo4rst number since 1945.

next week we have several important indicators, focus will be, mainly in the ECB's monetary policy decision on thursday, the bank lending key rate in the Euro Area is now at 2.5% and rumosr has that the ECB could follow the BoE and trim rates by some 50 b.p. in yet another attempt to kick start economy.

U.S. retail sales will be published on wednesday, an impotrtant indicator to assess the impact of the whole economic downturn upon consumption.


Monday January 12th

  • 00:01 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate - December (Previous: -1)
  • 23:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis - November (Previous: ¥1113.2B)
  • 23:50 Japan Adjusted Current Account - November (Previous: ¥145B)

Tuesday January 13th

  • 00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor - All - December (Previous: -2.6%)
  • 09:30 United Kingdom Goods Trade Balance - November (Previous: -£7.8B)
  • 09:30 United Kingdom Total Trade Balance - November (Previous: -£3.9B)
  • 13:00 United States Bernanke speaks at London School of Economics
  • 13:30 Canada International Merchandise Trade - December (Previous: $3.78B)
  • 13:30 United States Trade Balance - November (Previous: -$57.1B)
  • 21:45 New Zealand Building Permits - November (Previous: -21.9%)

Wednesday January 14th

  • 10:00 European Monetary Union Industrial Production w.d.a. - November (Previous: -5.3% y/y)
  • 13:30 United States Import Price Index - December (Previous: -6.7% m/m; 4.4% y/y)
  • 13:30 United States Retail Sales - December (Previous: -1.8% m/m; Ex Autos -1.6%)
  • 19:00 United States Fed's Beige Book
  • 23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders - November (Previous: -4.4%)

Thursday January 15th

  • 00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate - December - (Previous: 4.4%)
  • 07:00 Germany Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -0.5% m/m; 1.4% y/y)
  • 09:00 European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -0.5% m/m; 2.1% y/y)
  • 12:45 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision (Previous: 2.5%)
  • 13:30 European Monetary Union ECB Trichet's Speech
  • 13:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - December (Previous: -25.76)
  • 13:30 United States Producer Price Index - December (Previous: -2.2% m/m; 0.4% y/y)
  • 15:00 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey - January (Previous: -32.9%)

Friday January 16th

  • 00:30 Japan BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
  • 08:15 Switzerland Producer and Import Prices - December (Previous: -1.4% m/m; 1.1% y/y)
  • 10:00 European Monetary Union Trade Balance n.s.a. - November (Previous: €0.9B)
  • 13:30 United States Consumer Price Index - December (Previous: -1.7% m/m; core CPI: 0.0% m/m; 2.0% y/y)
  • 14:00 United States Net Long-term TIC Flows - November (Previous: $1.5B)
  • 14:15 United States Industrial Production - December (Previous: -0.6% m/m)
  • 15:00 United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary - January (Previous: 60.1)

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

ADP Sees December US private Sector Job

ADP Sees December US Private Sector Jobs -693,000

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Private sector jobs fell 693,000 in the U.S. in December, according to a revamped national employment report published Wednesday by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.

That's far higher than the 515,000 loss forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The December ADP survey is the first to incorporate a major overhaul of the methodology, including new regressions. The changes were introduced because the ADP survey has underestimated the monthly number of job losses as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since the recession began in December 2007.

For instance, under the old calculations, the ADP Survey showed a loss of 250,000 private-sector jobs in November. The new methodology shows a 476,000 job drop in November, closer to the 533,000 reported by the BLS.

The ADP survey tallies only private-sector jobs while the BLS data include government workers. Based on recent public-sector job growth, Wednesday's ADP report suggests December nonfarm payrolls will show a loss of at least 650,000 when the BLS reports the data on Friday.

The new report showed businesses with 500 employees and more shed 91,000 jobs and medium-sized businesses lost 321,000 jobs in December. Small businesses that employ fewer than 50 workers cut 281,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment dropped 120,000 in December, while service sector jobs fell 473,000.

The ADP employment report provides a snapshot of the private sector job market just ahead of the official U.S. payrolls report, which will be published Friday. ADP's report doesn't include government jobs, which have been rising this year while private jobs have been lost.

ADP, of Roseland, N.J., claims to process the payment of one in six U.S. workers, while Macroeconomic Advisers, based in St. Louis, is an economic consulting firm. The firms release this indicator each month at 8:15 a.m. ET on the Wednesday prior to the release of the Labor Department's Employment Situation report.

-By Matthew Cowley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201 938 5692; matthew.cowley@dowjones.com

(Kathleen Madigan contributed to this report)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 07, 2009 08:26 ET (13:26 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Dow Jones

Monday, January 5, 2009

Dollar Broadly Higher On US Economic Stimulus Reports

Dollar Broadly Higher On US Economic Stimulus Reports

By Don Curren
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The U.S. dollar is broadly higher and is recording sharp gains against the euro Monday morning as reports circulate about the substantial size of the economic stimulus package contemplated by President-elect Barack Obama.

The U.S. currency has been bolstered by news the incoming administration is considering proposals to stimulate the U.S. economy with a $775 billion stimulus package, including a $300 billion tax cut, analysts said.

"To the extent that there is any news behind it, I guess all we can really point to is the evolving Obama stimulus package," said Adam Cole, head of foreign exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London.

The large gains by the dollar also reflect continued illiquid conditions in currency markets, he added.

Liquidity is likely to remain thin in the next few sessions, he said.

The euro is being undermined by reports that Italian authorities are considering suing the banks that helped them to manage bonds taken out in the 1990s.

The euro was at $1.3594 from $1.3857 late Friday afternoon, according to EBS. The dollar was at Y93.20 from Y92.30, while the euro was at Y126.71 from Y127.78. The U.K. pound was at $1.4487 from $1.4480, while the dollar was at CHF1.1062 from CHF1.0826 Friday.

A report from Brown Brothers Harriman in New York said that, after coiling like a spring against the yen in a JPY90-JPY91 trading range, the dollar snapped out before the weekend and has seen follow-through buying Monday.

"Japanese economic data has simply been horrible in recent weeks, suggesting a deeper contraction than policy makers and investors may have anticipated," the report said.

At 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT), U.S. construction spending data for November will be released. Economists expect a 1.2% decline in new construction activity from the previous month.

Elsewhere, a continued firm performance by energy prices was helping underpin commodity currencies, as tensions in the Middle East continued to increase and Russia and Ukraine remained at loggerheads.

"With the latter standoff intensifying over the weekend and little immediate prospect of an end to fighting in the Gaza Strip, commodity currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are likely to extend their gains early this week," said Daragh Maher, deputy head of global foreign exchange strategy with Calyon Credit Agricole in London.

While those currencies were slightly lower against the resurgent U.S. dollar Monday morning, they were outperforming the euro and the yen.


Canada Morning


The U.S. dollar was trading at C$1.2161 from C$1.2154 late Friday afternoon.

A report from TD Securities said the Canadian dollar is picking up some support in cross trading against the euro and the yen, which should contribute to buying interest in the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart in the short term at least.

-By Don Curren, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2020; don.curren@dowjones.com

(Nick Hastings in London contributed to this article.)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 05, 2009 09:09 ET (14:09 GMT)


Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Dow Jones