Sunday, July 29, 2012

Fiber major Correction???

hi guys

just my personal view base on wave degree count..fiber in progress to completed subwave h1-a? (1.2383 or 1.2480)...for new month plan trade...fiber more buying in area 1.22xxx or 1.21xx..Risk Sl at 1.20xx.major extension fiber can go 1.27xx just my personal view..good luck.


Merkel, Draghi, Rajoy, Monti and the bailouts: What to do? - Round press

In June during the last International Traders Conference in Barcelona, Ed Ponsi said in his speech, 'The Future of the U.S. Dollar,' that the reason Germany doesn't print money is that they still remember the 1-billion mark bill. I've been keeping this phrase on my mind during the last month as I've always believed that money is the tool to make better societies even if governments have to invest more money. But I also think that the current countries' leveraging levels are unsustainable. So I found Ed's idea a clever quote to define the Euro situation.

Germany's Merkel is reluctant to permit ECB to support banks directly but if Europeans finally decide to do it as it was hinted at the latest June summit and on Thursday by Mario Draghi, the process "must be implemented quickly" as Ed Ponsi said in this press round with FXstreet.com. "At the current pace, it could take months or even years and that is what the markets find unacceptable."

Richard Olsen, co-founder of OANDA, commented at the ITC too that "Central Banks are spending all tools they have." If necessary, "what Central Banks will use when things come worst?" In other words, what euro leaders must do to improve market sentiment and to ease borrowing costs across the South European countries?

"An exit from the Euro is growing," said John Kicklighter from DailyFX, speaking about Greece, Spain and even other countries. "But the risk that it confers is so large that we need to give the scenario greater weight when we incorporate it into our trading expectations." Kicklighter believes "a Greek exit is around 60 percent at this point."

In addition, the odds for a full bailout to Spain are growing fast and "Euro-area officials will likely force the member to take a full bailout," comments Kicklighter. "We already have an open promise of up to €100 billion of total support for the country and €30 billion of funds for immediate crises need; and confidence continues to evaporate regardless."

"With borrowing costs at unsustainable levels," states Ilian Yotov from Allthingsforex.com. "I would say the odds are about 99.9%." Market believes that Spain would need more than 600 billion for a full bailout to meet borrowing necessities for the next 3 years. In this way yield pressures would be avoided. "What is more pressing is the timing and the method of implementation," comments Ponsi. "If those issues can be resolved quickly, we could see a recovery in the Euro."

Early on Friday, Spain acknowledged it might require a full bailout from the European Union and the IMF worth €300 billion if its borrowing costs remain unsustainable high, Reuters reported citing an unnamed euro zone official.

According to the report, Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos discussed the issue with its German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble in a meeting in Berlin on Tuesday as Spanish 10-year yields rose above 7.6%. The official said Germany wasn't comfortable with the idea of a bailout now, Reuters reported.

The IMF published its Article VI on Spain saying that the economic outlook for Spain "remains very difficult and vulnerable to significant downside risks." Spain's unprecedented double-dip recession will last at least until 2014 and poses a threat to the rest of Europe, the International Monetary Fund said. The Fund estimates that policy tightening will reduce output by 1% by 2014 and that unemployment will also rise.

Meanwhile, the Fund expects the Spanish economy to contract by double of previously estimated in 2013. They expect a 1.2% GDP drop in 2013 (previous estimate: -0.6%) and a 1.7% contraction this year (-1.5% previously estimated).

For the time being, ECB’s President Mario Draghi said in a speech in London on Thursday that the European Central Bank would "do whatever it takes to preserve the euro," and "it will be enough" to solve the situation. These words relieved market sentiment and the risk has been put in on mode with the Euro trading above 1.2300. Spanish 10-year bonds traded lower on the back of Draghi's comments. The Spain's Premium risk declined to the current 534 bps with the 10Y bond fell from euro-era highest at 7.73%, reached this week, to the current 6.77%. Italian premium risk eased to 453 bps with the 10Y bonds declining from Wednesday's 6.65% to the current 5.96%.



Despite the fact that Spain's spread decline by more than 40bps on Thursday, concerns on Spanish ability to support current borrowing costs remains as William Gross from PIMCO says, "Spanish yields drop 50 basis on Draghi. No matter. They need 400 basis more to remain solvent longer term."

"Greece, Ireland and Portugal were all pushed into bailout programmes shortly after their long-term borrowing costs exceeded 7%," thinks Megan Green, Head of European Economics at Roubini Global Economics. "But there is no magic number above which borrowing becomes unsustainable. In theory a country could survive if it made a bigger fiscal adjustment so that it had more money to pay down its debt."

"The Spanish government is going out of its way to avoid it [bailout]," continues Greene "In part this is because of concerns that it will be unable to regain market access once it loses it by borrowing from the EU bailout funds. But a delay is also important to the rest of the Eurozone."

In this line, "if the market is already on the path of avoiding risky investments," believes Kicklighter, "they will make a concerted effort to avoid Spain as they have seen too many repeat problems with troubled Euro countries in the past."

"The question is where the estimated 300 billion euro needed for Spain will come from?" rhetorically asks us Ilian Yotov. "There is not in practice enough bailout money for those two countries [Spain and Italy] now," remarks Greene.

Meanwhile, institutions like Citi, in the voice of its Chief Economist Willem Buiter, believes Greece is likely to leave the Eurozone over the next 12-18 months, with chances of 90%: "Our base case is for prolonged economic weakness and financial market strains in periphery countries, spilling over into renewed recession for the euro area as a whole this year and the next”, stating the increased chances from 50-75% now to 90%, most likely in the next 2-3 quarters.



On the other hand, "reports leak from the Spanish government that the prime minister is considering "putting on the table" the option of a withdrawal from the euro," remarks Yotov. And Buiter affirms that the crisis won’t be solved after the “Grexit” as Spain and Italy are expected to “form of troika bailout for the sovereign by the end of 2012”.

So what the leaders must do is act fast and quickly on banking union and allowing ECB to recapitalize banks directly. "If the Eurozone wanted to make sweeping strides towards stabilizing the Spanish troubles," says Kicklighter, "they could fast track the rescue of the nation’s banking system and offer us clear details about the size of the program and the conditions"

"If they wanted to take it even further," continues Kicklighter, "they could quickly adopt the Banking Union that would set the foundation for using the ESM to bailout banking system and further to purchasing government bonds (to stem both sovereign and bank issues)."

Providing the ECB with bank license "could be a good solution to the problem," underlines Yotov. "Give the permanent ESM fund a banking license which will allow it to borrow from the European Central Bank and will increase its firepower."

In other words, paraphrasing a fridge magnet that a friend gave me: "Euro got me into this mess and as God is my witness, Euro will get me out of it."

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Fiber Ending diagonal again???

hi guy..

just share my personal view base on m30...See eu form ending diagonal...to completed subwave v?...waiting break space point level and arithmatic line...fiber already form extended wave..know...waiting to form ending diagonal..before..make a major reversal..Just my 2 cent view..TAYOR..critical level area reject.. 1.2208 & 1.2184..good luck..

Monday, July 2, 2012

Plan trade fiber this week

Hi all

Just to share my plan trade this week..base on square block view..Fiber critical range area .1.2738(strong resistance)& 1.2419(strong support)..pivot level area at 1.2581.base on overall view h4 price still in downtrend side.my bias is downtrend mood...in fiber..this week my plan more selling then buying if price not break 1.2738..

just my 2 cent... ; P

Saturday, June 23, 2012

The Big-Four to the Rescue: Euro leaders agree on growth-boost package; ECB eases collateral rules


As the trading week's close is drawing near, European leaders came out to address markets' jitters, by announcing a string of measures and proposals aimed to strengthen the region's faltering economy and its financial system.
Leaders of the four largest euro-zone members have met in Rome on Friday in preparation for the crucial EU summit to be held next week. According to Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, they have already come to an agreement to introduce economic measures directed to boost the economic growth in the euro bloc.
The four leaders, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti have agreed on the need to introduce economic growth stimulus package worth 1% of euro area GDP, or €130 billion.
At a press conference in Rome today after a meeting of the countries' four leaders, French President Francois Hollande said those measures should be implemented as quickly as possible, while German Chancelor Merkel said she agrees with the package that will be presented for the rest of the member states at the EU Summit on June 28 and 29 next week.
Leaders emphasized the irreversibility of the euro and the need to control deficits. The four leaders also agreed "to put all the mechanisms into motion to achieve financial stability" and to work toward better economic and financial integration. "We need more Europe," Merkel said.
Meanwhile, Germany seems to be lagging alone in its position against the European rescue fund purchasing sovereign bonds. Hollande said Friday he supports Monti proposal to use rescue funds to buy distressed member's debt.
Earlier on the day, Mario Monti said in an interview for The Guardian that if EU officials fail to devise a clear strategy next week "a large part of Europe would find itself having to continue to put up with very high interest rates that would then impact on the states and also indirectly on firms. This is the direct opposite of what is needed for economic growth."
ECB announces measures to boost collateral availability
Also Friday, the European Central Bank announced measures to ease collateral rules and allow banks greater access to liquidity. 
The ECB decided on additional measures "to improve the access of the banking sector to Eurosystem operations in order to further support the provision of credit to households and non-financial corporations", says the ECB in a statement.
The ECB has reduced the rating threshold and amended the eligibility requirements for certain asset-backed securities (ABSs) thus increasing the pool of securities it accepts from banks at its liquidity operations. 
In addition to the ABSs that are already eligible for use as collateral, the ECB will now accept certain mortgage-backed securities, car loans and loans to small and medium-sized firms.
The newly eligible ABSs will face higher haircuts, or certain discounts, and "must also satisfy additional requirements which will be specified in the legal act to be adopted Thursday 28 June 2012". The measures will take effect as soon as the relevant legal act enters into force.
The Bundesbank, the German central bank, was quick to respond. "The Bundesbank takes a critical stance on the new rules," a spokesman said. The Bundesbank has repeatedly criticized the ECB for the continued easing of its collateral rules.

Spain expected to apply officially for bank aid on Monday

Following the Spanish bank audit results released on Thursday the Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker strongly urged the country to present its official request for bank aid by Monday, despite the fact that initially Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos described it as just a formality. After the misunderstanding was cleared up, it was agreed that the request will be put forward as soon as possible, by Monday at the latest.

The Eurogroup confirmed that the recapitalization money for Spanish banks will come from the EFSF bailout fund and that the exact amount will be determined during negotiations which will be held in the next two-three weeks. Once Spain officially asks for assistance the Troika inspectors will be able to visit the country to supervise the recapitalization process.

Spain needs up to €62 bln to recapitalize banks
Spanish Government announced Thursday independent assessments consider Spain will need between €16 and €62 billion to recapitalize the nation's banks.

According to reports made by Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger, hired by the Bank of Spain at the request of the Government, Spanish banks' fund needs amount to €16-25 billon in central scenario and between €51-62 billon in adverse scenario.

In the central scenario, Oliver Wyman considers €16-25 billon as appropriated, while Roland Berger estimates €25.6 billion.

In the adverse scenario, which contemplates a 5.0% drop in activity, a 26.4% fall in housing prices, and a 6.5% accumulated decline in GDP through 2014, Oliver Wyman estimates funds need between €51 and €62 billion, while the second firm forecasts €51.8 billion.

For the analysis, both firms studied independently 14 banks, which aggregate nearly 90% of banking activity in Spain, in a 3-year timeframe.

Most needs, are concentrated in the nationalized entities or in process of being, Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, Novacaixagalicia and Banco de Valencia, who will have to resort to European money. Three biggest banks do not need capital.

With the reports available, the Spanish government will proceed to the formal request for financial assistance. The EU announced on June 9 it approved as much as €100 billion in a loan to recapitalize Spanish banks. Hence, in the worst scenario, Spain will need €38 billion less than pre-approved by the EU.

These assessments represent the first step as these studies do not reveal how much would each bank will demand, that's will be revealed by reports requested to four major audit firms operating in Spain, Ernst & Young, Deloitte, KPMG and PwC, which will end their work by July 31.

Spanish FinMin Luis de Guindos said earlier Thursday that he expects that the roadmap for banks' recapitalization should be clear by the end of July.
Moody's downgrades 15 global banks as previously leaked

Moody's, as expected, has downgraded 15 banks with global capital markets operations. The cut breakdown has seen 4 downgraded by 1 notch, 10 by 2 notches, 1 by 3 notches, the latter receiving the severe 3 notches cut was Credit Suisse. 
The full list of downgrades can be found below:

- Morgan Stanley 2 notches to Baa1 (there was talk of 3 notches)

- Citigroup lowered to Baa2, outlook negative

- UBS lowered 2 notches, there was talk of 3

- RBS lowered 1 notch to Baa1, outlook negative

- Goldman to 2 notches to A3 from A1

- HSBC 1 notch to AA2

- Barclays 2 notches to A3

- BNP Paribas 2 notches to AA3

- Credit Agricole 2 notches to AA3

- RBC to two notches to Aa3

- Soc Gen 1 notch to A2

- Deutsche Bank 2 notches to A2

- Fortis, Lloyds and Bank of America the others.
"All of the banks affected by today's actions have significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses inherent to capital markets activities", says Moody's Global Banking Managing Director Greg Bauer. "However, they also engage in other, often market leading business activities that are central to Moody's assessment of their credit profiles. These activities can provide important 'shock absorbers' that mitigate the potential volatility of capital markets operations, but they also present unique risks and challenges."

Sunday, April 22, 2012

EU Form Head and Shoulder??

Hi all,

Just my personal view fiber base on h4 chart see eu form head & shoulder?(continue pattern downtrend)...now fiber need to completed subwave c? or 2?...i smell some bearish mood in major range : ) good luck.


Sunday, April 1, 2012

EU Next Extension 1.36xx???

Hi All..

update fiber wave degree count..for next trading plan...enjoy



Friday, March 30, 2012

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Illusion or Reality? And what does it mean for the U.S. Dollar?

Mauricio Carrillo - Leaving behind us the first quarter of 2012, market is facing now the next tranche of this year with kind of less confidence than pass weeks, Why? Despite the last months improvement in the fundamental figures across the US, many experts were alerting that the recovery pace wasn't enough to sustain the overall US economy. Why this lack of confidence taking that the US economy health is in a better condition than the last years?
Ilian Yotov, FX Strategist and Founder for AllThingsForex writes in exclusive for FXstreet.com the second issue of the "The US Observers" series. He title his piece as The U.S. Economic Recovery: Illusion or Reality? … And what does it mean for the U.S. Dollar? Hope you will enjoy as much as I did it.

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Illusion or Reality?  …And what does it mean for the U.S. Dollar?

By Ilian Yotov, FX Strategist and Founder for AllThingsForex
United States Situation
(Allthingsforex.com) – With Q2 2012 on the horizon as the first quarter of the year winds down, currency traders continue to ponder the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, the trend of improvement in the U.S. labor market, the next move by the Fed and, ultimately, what all of this would mean for the future fate of the U.S. dollar.
At the start of the fourth quarter of 2011, in one of our weekly outlook articles, we wrote: “in the final three months of last year, the markets will begin a quest to find out if the U.S. economic picture is really as gloomy as the FOMC statement painted it to be.” The reason we felt that it would be important to take on such a quest was because the Fed’s outlook for Q4 2011 was not very optimistic, the EU debt crisis was far from over, and in the market’s eyes QE3 was only a matter of time.
Naturally, equities traders would have loved to see another round of quantitative easing to keep the stock market rally going, but currency traders knew that this would have been done at the expense of the greenback. And so, day after day, week after week, we diligently monitored the outcome of the main indicators on the state of the world’s largest economy with one objective in mind- to determine if the U.S. economic data would raise or reduce QE3 odds.
So far in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012, it turned out that the latter has been the case. Even the Fed Chairman Bernanke has recently acknowledged the signs of improvement, telling Congress that, "while keeping monetary stimulus is warranted… the drop in the unemployment rate has been more rapid than expected”. But don’t take his or our words for granted. The numbers speak for themselves…
GDP
The U.S. economy has managed to avoid a double dip and has registered stronger growth than each previous quarter for three consecutive quarters in 2011 (Q2, Q3 and Q4).
Jobless Claims
In Q4 2011, the U.S. weekly jobless claims finally broke below 375K, a number which economists estimated could serve as a leading indicator of future improvement in the U.S.job market and further decline in the unemployment rate. By March2012, the U.S. jobless claims have reached a 4-year low.
Employment Situation
The U.S. Employment Situation figures mirrored the trend of improvement in the weekly jobless claims with the U.S. economy adding over 200K jobs per month for three consecutive months (December, 2011, January and February, 2012) and with the unemployment rate declining from 9.0% in September, 2011 to8.3% in January and February, 2012.

employment data

Industrial Production

The U.S. manufacturing output has recovered after the drop in mid-2011and has been gaining pace for three consecutive months in December, 2011, January and February,2012.

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes
Activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the U.S. economy continue to show resilience,with both the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes sustaining above 50 in expansion territory for over two years since December, 2009.



The Weak Spots
When examining the data listed above,it is hard to make the case for more doom and gloom. There are promising signs that the U.S. economy has gained traction and could continue to improve. But if there is anything that we have learned from the process of recovery from the Great Recession it would be to not get too overly optimistic, as things could take a turn for the worse at any time.
From a global perspective, there are a number of factors that could have a negative impact on worldwide growth and on the U.S. economy. China, the second largest economy in the world, is slowing and its “soft landing” could turn out to be less cushy than anticipated. The EU leaders are still yet to convince investors that the worst of the debt crisis is behind and that they are capable of building a strong firewall to prevent contagion into the larger economies of the monetary union. The recent disappointing manufacturing and services PMI reports from Germany and the Euro-zone have put into question the expectations of a Euro-zone rebound in the first quarter of 2012.
Domestically, there are also weak spots in the U.S. economy with inflationary pressures picking up, the trade deficit widening and the housing market still lagging behind the improvement in other sectors.

The U.S. Dollar
Looking ahead at Q2 and the rest of2012, the future fate of the greenback will continue to be dependent on the Fed’s next move and, in particular, on QE3 expectations. The strengthening U.S. economy has and will continue to reduce the odds of the Fed “doing more” (which are the new code words for additional quantitative easing).
In the last couple of quarters, we’ve seen the inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and risk beginning to fade away as evidence of a stable U.S. recovery mounts.Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, stock market weakness and risk aversion have lead to U.S. dollar strengthening approximately 80% of the time. On the other hand, risk appetite and the rally in equities in most instances have resulted in U.S. dollar weakness. The percentage of this inverse relationship between risk and the greenback has fallen to about 40% in the first quarter of2012.
This, of course, does not mean that the only way would be up for the U.S. dollar going forward. At least not until QE3 is completely out of the picture. The Fed has been and will continue to stand ready to deploy it if economic conditions begin to deteriorate in the months and quarters to come. There may be a reason why the U.S. central bank has not yet ruled out completely the option of doing more quantitative easing. As witnessed throughout the last 4years, things could get ugly fast. Q1 2012 GDP forecasts already point to a slower growth of 2.3% in the first quarter compared with3.0% q/a in the fourth quarter of 2011. The current quarter U.S. GDP model by Moody’s predicts an even smaller number with the U.S.economy forecast to grow by 1.8% q/a in the first quarter of 2012.Rising oil prices and tax cuts set to expire by the end of the year could also become a significant drag on the U.S. economy.
Despite of the dangers ahead,economists estimate that the current pace of growth would be sufficient enough to continue to lower the unemployment rate. Should such expectations become more than just wishful thinking in the upcoming quarters, the Fed could consider steering away from QE3 and could begin to change the course of its monetary policy, directing it towards tightening before the promised deadline of “late 2014”. If this is what the market believes and begins to price in, the U.S.dollar’s future might just get brighter.