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S&P 500 on the Verge of Major Breakout, US Dollar at Two-Month Low

THE TAKEAWAY – The safe-haven US Dollar has dropped to a two-month low while the S&P 500 is on the verge of completing a significant breakout to the upside.

S&P 500 – Prices are probing above support-turned-resistance at 1257.30, the former neckline of a major Head and Shoulders top chart formation carved out between January and August, a boundary reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1263.03. A daily close above the latter boundary exposes the 1300 figure, followed by the 76.4% retracement at 1306.24. Near-term support lines up at 1228.10, the 50% Fib.

CRUDE OIL – The broad outlines of positioning are little changed from what we noted yesterday. Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at $94.87, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from May’s swing high, pointing to a loss of bullish momentum and hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at $90.17, the 38.2% Fib, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% and 38.2% extension levels at $85.33 and $79.62.

GOLD – Prices are recoiling from resistance at $1726.60, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with sellers aiming at support marked by the 38.2% level at $1680.78. Alternatively, a reversal through immediate resistance exposes the 61.8% Fib at $1772.42.

US DOLLAR – Prices are pushing through resistance-turned-support at a falling trend line connecting major highs since late May. Near-term support stands at a rising boundary set from the late July bottom, now at 9507, with a break below that exposing the 9331-9395 region.

8hour Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Euro rallies on broad Greek write-downs agreement

 In a frenetic last minutes of trading, finally, a currency seems to be moving in the Forex market; and this could be no other than the Europen shared currency, which is being bid to the boots after headlines suggest Eurozone official have reached a 'broad agreement' on plan for banks to voluntarily cut Greece's debt. Private creditors are thought to accept a 50% haircut on Greek bonds.

At present, the Euro has recovered from an early dip at 1.3865 to rise as high as 1.3952 as a fair amount of short-covering action is noted, meaning all those investors hoping to make lucrative bets against the Euro will have to sit on its hands again, waiting a better day to pick the right timing to play the Euro short trade; only difference is that they will be now a bit shorter of capital. The rollercoaster in the pair continues, with a short-lived pullback to retest the former intra-day high at 1.3918 before another vigorous take off. Euro approaching highs as we type-up the report.

As rightly noted by renowned market expert Jamie Coleman, from Forexlive, eralier on the week: "The most frustrating thing about financial markets is that you can have the exact right macro view but still lose money if your entry points are not perfect. I fear a sharp short-covering rally in the next 24-hours followed by renewed weakness later in the week after the event risk from the EU summit is over."