3 Reasons Why Technical Analysis Is Superior When Trading Stocks and Options

Here are just 3 reasons why we think technical analysis needs to be incorporate into any trading system or program:

#1 – It’s Based On Statistics

Statistics is a word that sometimes scares people away, but let me be clear…statistics has keep my trading account out of trouble and growing for many years now. Statistics helps us look at historic performance which can indeed help predict future movements (or at least the likelihood of a move). Therefore, it’s imperative that you learn to understand and us it to your advantage.

For our options trading strategieswe constantly look at standard deviations and means to get an idea of how far a stock or ETF is likely to move based on historical price movements. As option sellers we like to make trades with statistical averages of losing money below 5%. This way we know we are trading with the greatest chance or likelihood of making money.

2 - Historical Probability – Not Certainty

Again, we use technical analysis to look back in time and ask “What happened when…” Does this always mean that it will happen again? Of course not – nothing is 100% certain when trading. However, technical analysis of price trends, support/resistance, etc give us general guidelines to where a stock may or may not trade.

For example, if a stock is trading at $20 and has never traded higher than $50 it’s safe to assume that it won’t get there anytime soon right? It could get bought out by another company tomorrow at $50 but this event has a low probablility of happening. Another great use of probability is the Down vs. Up days ratio. The more “down” days this security records, the higher that probability of an “up” day. While this is an elementary example, it illustrates the mechanics that drive technical analysis – probabilities.

#3 – Technicals Deal With Real Money, Not Predictions About Earnings

In short  fundamental analysis attempts to predict the future potential of a stock based on information found in the financial statements, management discussion, as well as other economic and sector information. In our opinion this is all hearsay until it actually happens. Sure a company “could” sell 20% more products next quarter but will it? Technical analysis deals only with where investors are willing to invest – specific price points and volume of transactions. For us, this eliminates any degree of “expectation” or “prediction” in a stock.

If you hear a fundamental analyst say a stock is “worth” $50 but is only trading at $30 then he’s wrong! If the stock was really worth $50 then investors would be willing to pay $50 for it – but they aren’t. They are only willing to pay right now at most $30. Herein is the major difference and advantage to technical analysis over fundamental analysis. Truth in trading versus expectation and prediction.

Steps To Help You Become a Successful Trader

(1)  Learn From Role Models (Mentors).  This is probably the most important step in becoming asuccessful trader, although very difficult to find.  Why reinvent the wheel when you can learn from a successful trader(s) who haves been consistently successful for a long time.  They’ve already paved the way by studying, experimenting and by trading successfully in real-time – in short you must learn from successful traders who have made the journey before you.  They can tell you what works and what doesn’t – in short they can show you the correct and profitable way to trade without you having to make the mistakes (which can translate into a lot of lost money, not to mention time).  You must also select the right mentor (role model).  A mentor that can make you a better and more successful trader — and to help you achieve your goals.  You’ll also be able to learn from their mistakes.  In general, you must take advantage of the lessons learned from successful traders who have already done it.

Once again, what you need is a Role Model(s), traders who are easily accessible and can really show you the ins and outs of trading.

(2)  Establish Good Habits.   The only way to establish good habits as a successful trader is to be extremely organized.  Getting organized will immediately start to put some discipline in your life, and give your day the structure that everybody needs.  If you’re not organized, you will set yourself up to be unfocused, thus you will ultimately fail.  Do your homework, and prepare yourself each and every day.  A successful trader must learn everything that they can in order to trade the markets.  We can’t begin to explain how important it is to have good habits when it comes to successful trading/investing.  Without good habits you are doomed to eventually fail.

(3)  Set Realistic Goals:  Goals are real important in trading.  If you don’t have trading goals how do you expect to become a successful trader?  Your trading goals can only be achieved through hard work and making sacrifices.  And that goes for any type of goal you set out for yourself, not just trading.  Goals are the individual steps that we must take in order to reach our dreams (i.e. to become a full-time professional trader).  You must also be willing to consistently push yourself to attain your goals.  Get excited about reaching the smaller goals, because a bunch of smaller goals eventually lead into reaching your bigger goals.  Just realize that striving for excellence, striving for success is a never-ending process, something that has no end.  Never stand still, always continue to try to get better.  (1)  To be a successful trader you must have a goal.  Goal setting starts with a pad of paper, a pen and you, (2)  a goal is created in three parts: ● first is the mental picture – you must be able to visualize your goal(s) and where your goal(s) will take you ● second is when you write down the goal(s) to help add clarity & dimension ● third is when you take action towards achieving the goal(s).  The best opportunities in life are the ones we create.  Goal-setting provides you the opportunity to create a great life.  And if becoming a professional full-time trader is your goal, there is absolutely no reason why you can’t achieve that goal.

-  Goal Setting:

• You must be Decisive
• Stay Focused
• Reward Yourself
• Write Down your Goals
• Plan Thoroughly
• Maintain Personal Integrity
• Involve Others (a Mentor)
• Take Action
• Expect Plan Changes

- Steps To Achieve Your Trading Goals:

• Write Your Goals Down
•  Identify Any Obstacles & Risks
•  Develop Your Trading Plan
• Identify Any Sacrifices & Investments
• List Your Personal Benefits
• Develop Support Team {Role Model(s)}
• Analyze Your Current Situation
• Knowledge Requirements
• Set A Deadline
• Reward Yourself Now & Then

(4)  Be Very Persistent.  It is persistence that keeps us working at our full potential.  You must literally develop a “PHD” learn it type of attitude:  poor, hungry and driven.  Persistence is the attitude that will never allow you to be content but will always drive you to learn more and to be a better trader.  The key is to keep working as hard as you ever have, because generally the harder you work the harder it is to not surrender to the markets.  You must never quit.  No matter what, you must make sure that you have a never-ending pursuit of your trading dreams – this is what persistence is all about.  Trading the markets is no different – persistence will keep you in this exciting and profitable business.

(5)  Always Be Positive.  Like anything you do in life, you must have a positive attitude, and trading is no different.  The problem is that negative people constantly surround us whether we like it or not.  And when we tell people that we’re traders (or want to be a trader), the feedback we get is generally negative, unless of course you’re already successful.  The key here is to stay positive in tough times.  The rule is simple:  the more trying the times are, the more positive you have to be.  You must learn to maximize the good times and shrink the bad times to as small as we can possibly make them.  Just remember, each time you fail means you are that much closer to success.  Trading the markets is no different, the longer you’re able to stay in this business, the better you will become.  That’s why it’s so important to get a good education right from the start (you’ve got it here in the ‘FPMP’).

(6)  Learn From Adversity (Your Mistakes).   This has never been as true as it is for trading.  You must learn from all your trading mistakes, which oftentimes leads to adversity.  The first kind of adversity occurs when you experience a series of failures in the market.  This is the kind that can hurt you and leave you doubting yourself.  Often when you have a series of losing trades you start to doubt yourself – that’s completely normal.  You then have to examine your failure (losing trades) and accept your share of the blame.  You have to learn from your mistakes – if you don’t, you’ll keep making the same mistakes, which can add up quickly to losing a lot of money.  The second kind of adversity that strikes us comes from events that we cannot control – the personal setbacks or tragedies that we must deal with.  We must force ourselves to appreciate all the good that is still around us.  By keeping this attitude will undoubtedly help you in your trading.

(7)  Make Pressure A Positive Thing.  Always remember, stress is the enemy.  If you let it get to you, it will rob you of your focus and will inhibit your trading performance.  Pressure is only a negative if we allow it to be.  By correctly identifying what is causing the pressure is the first step, because if we do not deal with the source of the pressure, it will turn into stress and affect our trading performance.  Pressure only becomes a negative when we are ill prepared to handle it.  If you can take the steps to anticipate how you can deal with the situation, you can actually turn up the volume of pressure and let it benefit you.  Pressure can also bring out extraordinary accomplishments.  It will help push you harder, and it will help focus your efforts on your more important trading goals.

We urge you to read and understand what was just discussed, because it is truly important information that will only help you become a better and more consistently profitable trader.

Support and Resistance : How to Trade with Support and Resistance

Learn how to use one of the most powerful pillars of a trading strategy is...support and resistance.

Support and Resistance is a powerful pillar to trading and most strategies have some type of support/resistance (S/R) analysis built into them. Support and Resistance provides the trader many clues about the market and how to trade with it. This is the first part in a multi-part series on support and resistance. Today, we are going to look at what Support and Resistance is and what its benefits are to traders.

Support and Resistance is one of the most widely followed technical analysis techniques in the financial markets. It is a simple method to analyze a chart quickly to determine 3 points of interest to a trader:

• Which direction to trade the market
• Timing an entry in the market
• Establishing points to exit the market at either a profit of loss

If a trader can answer the 3 items above, then they essentially have a trading idea. Identifying levels of Support and Resistance on a chart can answer those questions for the trader.

What is Support and Resistance?

(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)

As you can see on the chart above, Support is a price level below which a currency pair has difficulty going and Resistance is a price level above which a pair has difficulty going. Think of the area between support and resistance as being a room. Support is the floor and resistance is the ceiling. The pair will move between those two levels until a “breakout” occurs in one direction or the other.

In theory, support is the price level at which demand (buying power) is strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The rationale is that, as the price gets closer and closer to support, and becomes cheaper in the process, buyers see a better deal, and are more likely to buy. Sellers become less likely to sell, since they are getting a worse deal. In that scenario, demand (buyers) will overcome supply (sellers) and that will prohibit price from falling below support.

As one might suspect, support does not always hold. When price breaks below support, that behavior indicates that the sellers have won out over the buyers. This breach of support indicates that now the trading mindset is more inclined to sell than buy. After a support level is broken, a trader can expect another level of support to be established at the next point where buyers have established themselves.

Resistance, on the other hand, is the price level at which supply (selling power) is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The rationale behind this is that as the price gets closer and closer to resistance, and becomes more expensive in the process, sellers are more likely to sell and buyers become less likely to buy. In that scenario, supply (sellers) will overcome demand (buyers) and that will prohibit price from going above resistance.

Like support, resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance demonstrates that the bulls (buyers) have won out over the bears (sellers). Since resistance has been broken, buyers now have an increased willingness to buy at even higher prices since price has continued to move up, and doesn’t look likely to come back down. Once the former resistance level is broken, a new level of resistance will be formed at a level where sellers have taken a stand.

As a general rule, the longer the time frame of the chart, the stronger the established support and resistance levels will be. In other words, support and resistance levels reflected on a Daily chart will be stronger than those appearing on a 1-hour chart, for example.

With this basic introduction, it’s probably pretty easy to see how beneficial an understanding of support and resistance can be in your trading. Traders who accurately recognize strong support and resistance levels often do much better at locating trading opportunities and often have more confidence in how to manage their trades (where to place their stop loss and take profit levels).