Soros Stopped Betting Against Pound After $1.40 Level (Update1) By Simon Kennedy  Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor George Soros, who made $1 billion selling the pound in 1992, said he is no longer betting against the U.K. currency after it reached $1.40. “I did actually foresee the fall in sterling and that was one of the positions we carried,” he told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Below $1.40 “it seemed to me the risk-reward was no longer clear.” Soros said today that he has made money from the financial crisis. The British government’s efforts to protect the banking system from the turmoil last week led to a drop in the pound to the lowest level against the dollar since 1985. The currency traded at $1.4313 as of 12:56 p.m. in London today. “We did have a short position in sterling, but it doesn’t mean I’m bearish on sterling today or bullish,” Soros said. “It will continue to fluctuate.” Soros’s comments contrast with those of Jim Rogers, who co- founded the Quantum Fund with him and is now chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings. Rogers said Jan. 20 that the pound was “finished” because of turmoil in the banking system and a decline in North Sea oil output. Hungarian-born Soros gained fame more than 16 years ago when he broke the Bank of England’s defense of the pound and drove the currency from Europe’s system of linked exchange rates. Other successful trades included a bet that the deutsche mark would rise after the collapse of the Berlin wall and a wager that Japanese stocks would start to tumble in 1989. Brown’s Comments U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has so far resisted addressing sterling’s plunge and dismissed the warnings of investors by saying the government’s policy is to target inflation and not the exchange rate. “The experience of targeting the pound and targeting the exchange rate has not been one particularly beneficial to this country,” Brown said today in Parliament. Soros said his long-held pessimism in the outlook in the world economy allowed him to make money during the crisis. “I was able to protect my capital and get a rate of return,” he said. “In the current environment, to be in positive territory is itself an accomplishment.” Soros said President Barack Obama’s administration will struggle to revive the U.S. economy and financial system because President George W. Bush’s administration was “behind the curve” in responding to the crisis and now the money required is now “too big.” He urged the government to recapitalize banks and reduce the amount of housing foreclosures. “The situation will continue to deteriorate,” he said. Soros said the widening gap between the interest rates Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal must pay investors to borrow for 10 years and the rate charged to Germany reflects “structural weaknesses in the construction of the euro” and the lack of a common fiscal authority. Governments will eventually have to help each other out because individually they lack the “borrowing power” to protect their banking systems, Soros said. To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Davos at skennedy4@bloomberg.net Last Updated: January 28, 2009 08:33 EST |
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Soros stopped betting againt pound afrer $1.40
perghh...gchf nie betul2 menduga skill trading aku....aku bajet die retrace 50% die retrace 61.8% lak...dah sangkut satu post floating...kat area 50%..paper pun aku masuk order lagi kat 61.8%...utk post yg ke 2...al maklum la....market still dalam correction...bak kate org time sideway nie duk tepi tggu conformation dl...aku lak...time camnie sibuk2 duk masuk post...betul2 tak dengar kata...paper pun :-
TP 1 = 1.5672
TP2 = 1.5173....
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Master Ur Trading EQ
How To Increase Your Trading Emotional IQ
Did you know that the traders who lose the most money in trading are some of the most intelligent people?
So what’s causing them to lose money?
If you asked them, they would probably have different answers as to why this happens. They might blame the markets, politics, their system – or may even point to themselves.
From my experience dealing with many traders, it usually boils down to how traders, like you, manage their emotions and mindset. This is what I call trading emotional IQ.
Does the following scenario sound familiar? Markets are very volatile and all bets are off. You’ve forgotten your trading plan. You try to listen to every bit of news, and become more and more confused. You either become very trigger-happy or you freeze. The results are usually the same…you lose a lot of money and opportunities.
So what differentiate traders who don’t make money from those who make a lot of money? It’s the way we handle our emotions and mindset.
Have you ever noticed that when you say the same thing to two different people, one laughs at you and the other screams? That’s an indication of how they handle situations, and ultimately, what kind of results they are getting. By observing this, you can determine their emotional IQ.
We cannot deny our emotions. They are there. We are only in control of how we react to them. The good news is that we can modify our reactions and hence improve our trading results.
So what are some of the situations you are facing and how can you increase your trading emotional IQ?
1. How Do You Handle Success?
It’s very dangerous to win if you cannot control your emotions. You can become reckless, throw away your plans and trade from ego. When you trade from ego, you are gambling and letting your emotion take over. You might win in the short run – however, you’ll lose in the long run.
I had a client who after winning several trades would put in a trade that would wipe out all of his winnings. He would then wonder if trading was the right business for him or not. He was questioning the business instead of his behaviour…
The other tendency is to ignore your wins and assume that it’s no big deal. After all, you were expecting to win. Does this sound familiar? If so, you are not valuing your accomplishment. You are assuming that winning is a given. You’re forgetting that trading is about playing a game of probabilities. Every win deserves an acknowledgement.
What should you do when you win?
o Don’t take your wins for granted – take credit for the good job you’ve done.
o Celebrate it.
o Notice what you did that worked.
o Determine if there was anything you could have done better.
o Repeat the process that worked for you.
2. How Do You Handle Losses?
Usually, you are in two camps.
One is to blame yourself and become really frustrated and angry. You can’t forget the loss and your focus turns toward the negative P&L. When you are in a bad mood, you are unable to notice other opportunities that are right in front of you. Therefore, you end up losing a lot more.
The second camp is, you try to ignore the loss altogether and can’t see it for what it is. You become anxious to make up the loss. Therefore, you take unwarranted risk and you increase your position. Then you lose even more. You get into a vicious cycle – the more you lose, the more you risk and then you lose even more…
What are the steps you can take to manage your emotions when you are losing?
o Don’t make it global – Don’t say, “I always lose. I have bad luck. Markets are always against me.” By saying these, you set negative expectations and drain your energy.
o Think about your losing trade as an isolated event.
Have you noticed what successful basketball players do? When they miss a shot, they don’t think about the shot they have missed – they concentrate on the next shot.
When you lose a trade, don’t focus on the loss. Focus on what is ahead of you.
o When you lose, don’t lose the lessons. Look at:
§ What worked
§ What did not work
§ What did you learn about
- Market?
- Yourself?
- The security that you were trading?
- The methods that you were using?
3. How Do You Handle Fear?
A common way that people handle fear is to assume that they don’t know enough. They study more, read more, find different gurus to listen to, take more classes and attend more seminars. They say to themselves, “If I know more, then I won’t make any mistakes and won’t lose any money or opportunities.”
The reality is that by staying out of the game, you are not really learning how to play the game.
Think about an athlete. They can hear the rules, read and learn them. However, unless they are in the game and practicing, they are not going to get good at it
What are the steps you can take to handle your fear?
o As Nike says, Just DO IT!!!
o Remember something that you have done well. Remember how you felt and what you said to yourself. How did you see yourself…? This way, you will feel better about yourself and can move forward.
o Celebrate your mistakes and nervousness.
I know this might sound funny. However, when we were growing up, we learned that if we did something wrong, we would be punished. To avoid punishment, most of us were afraid of making mistakes – therefore, we experimented less and less. We didn’t take serious action unless we were sure of the outcome. Does this sound familiar?
By celebrating our mistakes, we are saying to ourselves that it’s OK to experiment. It is OK to try new things. Then we are more encouraged to change things a bit.
o Your past results are not equal to your future results – if you have failed in the past, it doesn’t mean that you are going to fail again.
o Know that you do not have to prove anything to anyone. Just take action…
4. Are You Being Present?
Are you allowing the markets to dictate your mood? So, when you win, you feel euphoric and when you lose, you feel angry? Are you equating your performance with who you are and how you feel?
If you are bored, do you try to find a trade even when there is none and thus sabotage yourself?
Do you get distracted with the news and let it impact your moods?
When you are not in the right state of mind, it does not help your trading.
As you think about a successful athlete, what emotional characteristic comes to mind? You notice that they are focused. They do not allow what happened a second ago to impact what they are going to do next – or they are going to lose.
What are some techniques you can use to change your mood?
o Use the pause method. Take a break.
o Take some deep breaths – by doing so, you’ll increase the amount of oxygen to your brain and thus relax your muscles.
o Listen to uplifting music. Studies have shown that one of the quickest ways to change your mood is by listening to music. When you go to the movies, the way they try to get you feel a certain emotion is by selecting the right music for the scene. Think about the “Mission Impossible” movies. What music comes to mind?
o Change your focus – concentrate on something that you enjoy.
o Have gratitude – think about the things that you are grateful for. Creativity and abundance come from a place of gratitude.
5. Are You Taking Responsibility?
What I mean by “taking responsibility” is to manage your own expectations.
Remember, trading is risky – the outcome is based on probabilities. It’s not guaranteed.
When trading, ask, “If I take this risk, am I able to accept and embrace it?” If you cannot, then this trade is not right for you.
If you cannot accept any risk, then you are in the wrong business.
You may have heard the saying, “Do not see the market as you want to see it. See it as it is.”
Your success is not about what is happening in the markets. It’s about your reaction to these markets.
Albert Einstein said, “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them. “
How To Increase Your Trading Emotional IQ
Did you know that the traders who lose the most money in trading are some of the most intelligent people?
So what’s causing them to lose money?
If you asked them, they would probably have different answers as to why this happens. They might blame the markets, politics, their system – or may even point to themselves.
From my experience dealing with many traders, it usually boils down to how traders, like you, manage their emotions and mindset. This is what I call trading emotional IQ.
Does the following scenario sound familiar? Markets are very volatile and all bets are off. You’ve forgotten your trading plan. You try to listen to every bit of news, and become more and more confused. You either become very trigger-happy or you freeze. The results are usually the same…you lose a lot of money and opportunities.
So what differentiate traders who don’t make money from those who make a lot of money? It’s the way we handle our emotions and mindset.
Have you ever noticed that when you say the same thing to two different people, one laughs at you and the other screams? That’s an indication of how they handle situations, and ultimately, what kind of results they are getting. By observing this, you can determine their emotional IQ.
We cannot deny our emotions. They are there. We are only in control of how we react to them. The good news is that we can modify our reactions and hence improve our trading results.
So what are some of the situations you are facing and how can you increase your trading emotional IQ?
1. How Do You Handle Success?
It’s very dangerous to win if you cannot control your emotions. You can become reckless, throw away your plans and trade from ego. When you trade from ego, you are gambling and letting your emotion take over. You might win in the short run – however, you’ll lose in the long run.
I had a client who after winning several trades would put in a trade that would wipe out all of his winnings. He would then wonder if trading was the right business for him or not. He was questioning the business instead of his behaviour…
The other tendency is to ignore your wins and assume that it’s no big deal. After all, you were expecting to win. Does this sound familiar? If so, you are not valuing your accomplishment. You are assuming that winning is a given. You’re forgetting that trading is about playing a game of probabilities. Every win deserves an acknowledgement.
What should you do when you win?
o Don’t take your wins for granted – take credit for the good job you’ve done.
o Celebrate it.
o Notice what you did that worked.
o Determine if there was anything you could have done better.
o Repeat the process that worked for you.
2. How Do You Handle Losses?
Usually, you are in two camps.
One is to blame yourself and become really frustrated and angry. You can’t forget the loss and your focus turns toward the negative P&L. When you are in a bad mood, you are unable to notice other opportunities that are right in front of you. Therefore, you end up losing a lot more.
The second camp is, you try to ignore the loss altogether and can’t see it for what it is. You become anxious to make up the loss. Therefore, you take unwarranted risk and you increase your position. Then you lose even more. You get into a vicious cycle – the more you lose, the more you risk and then you lose even more…
What are the steps you can take to manage your emotions when you are losing?
o Don’t make it global – Don’t say, “I always lose. I have bad luck. Markets are always against me.” By saying these, you set negative expectations and drain your energy.
o Think about your losing trade as an isolated event.
Have you noticed what successful basketball players do? When they miss a shot, they don’t think about the shot they have missed – they concentrate on the next shot.
When you lose a trade, don’t focus on the loss. Focus on what is ahead of you.
o When you lose, don’t lose the lessons. Look at:
§ What worked
§ What did not work
§ What did you learn about
- Market?
- Yourself?
- The security that you were trading?
- The methods that you were using?
3. How Do You Handle Fear?
A common way that people handle fear is to assume that they don’t know enough. They study more, read more, find different gurus to listen to, take more classes and attend more seminars. They say to themselves, “If I know more, then I won’t make any mistakes and won’t lose any money or opportunities.”
The reality is that by staying out of the game, you are not really learning how to play the game.
Think about an athlete. They can hear the rules, read and learn them. However, unless they are in the game and practicing, they are not going to get good at it
What are the steps you can take to handle your fear?
o As Nike says, Just DO IT!!!
o Remember something that you have done well. Remember how you felt and what you said to yourself. How did you see yourself…? This way, you will feel better about yourself and can move forward.
o Celebrate your mistakes and nervousness.
I know this might sound funny. However, when we were growing up, we learned that if we did something wrong, we would be punished. To avoid punishment, most of us were afraid of making mistakes – therefore, we experimented less and less. We didn’t take serious action unless we were sure of the outcome. Does this sound familiar?
By celebrating our mistakes, we are saying to ourselves that it’s OK to experiment. It is OK to try new things. Then we are more encouraged to change things a bit.
o Your past results are not equal to your future results – if you have failed in the past, it doesn’t mean that you are going to fail again.
o Know that you do not have to prove anything to anyone. Just take action…
4. Are You Being Present?
Are you allowing the markets to dictate your mood? So, when you win, you feel euphoric and when you lose, you feel angry? Are you equating your performance with who you are and how you feel?
If you are bored, do you try to find a trade even when there is none and thus sabotage yourself?
Do you get distracted with the news and let it impact your moods?
When you are not in the right state of mind, it does not help your trading.
As you think about a successful athlete, what emotional characteristic comes to mind? You notice that they are focused. They do not allow what happened a second ago to impact what they are going to do next – or they are going to lose.
What are some techniques you can use to change your mood?
o Use the pause method. Take a break.
o Take some deep breaths – by doing so, you’ll increase the amount of oxygen to your brain and thus relax your muscles.
o Listen to uplifting music. Studies have shown that one of the quickest ways to change your mood is by listening to music. When you go to the movies, the way they try to get you feel a certain emotion is by selecting the right music for the scene. Think about the “Mission Impossible” movies. What music comes to mind?
o Change your focus – concentrate on something that you enjoy.
o Have gratitude – think about the things that you are grateful for. Creativity and abundance come from a place of gratitude.
5. Are You Taking Responsibility?
What I mean by “taking responsibility” is to manage your own expectations.
Remember, trading is risky – the outcome is based on probabilities. It’s not guaranteed.
When trading, ask, “If I take this risk, am I able to accept and embrace it?” If you cannot, then this trade is not right for you.
If you cannot accept any risk, then you are in the wrong business.
You may have heard the saying, “Do not see the market as you want to see it. See it as it is.”
Your success is not about what is happening in the markets. It’s about your reaction to these markets.
Albert Einstein said, “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them. “
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